Joaquin Buckley hopes to win his sixth straight fight when he takes on former UFC interim UFC Fight Night star in the main event of UFC Fight Night (10:00 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+, with prelims at 7:00 p.m. on ESPN2/ESPN+). Welterweight champion Colby Covington competes.

Buckley (20-6), ESPN’s No. 9 welterweight, has not lost since December 2022. Most recently, Buckley defeated Stephen Thompson by third-round knockout at UFC 307 in October. Covington (17-4), No. 8 in ESPN’s division rankings, is coming off a loss to Leon Edwards in a December 2023 welterweight title fight. Covington has lost three of his last five fights.

Brett Okamoto spoke with MMA analyst and former UFC welterweight Alan Jouban to get his take on the main event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight and analysis to the card on the main event and other interesting bets he likes.

Editor’s Note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.

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Welterweight: Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley

Alan Jouban, MMA analyst and former UFC welterweight

How Covington Wins: Covington’s last fight left me feeling like he was done. He didn’t do anything that we know of him. Covington usually shoots for takedowns early, and I liked that about him because even if his opponent stuffed a takedown in the first 90 seconds, he knew there were five more of them in every round. Against Edwards, he didn’t score his first takedown until the third round, throwing those slow kicks instead of using his boxing to set up takedowns. To win this fight, he’ll have to do everything he didn’t do against Edwards. I don’t think Covington finishes Buckley, so drag him into deep water, use that speed and take risks by striking to set up takedowns.

How Buckley wins: Buckley’s confrontation is underrated. He came to the UFC as a striker, but lately he’s been beating everyone. Against Nursulton Ruziboev, Buckley defeated him repeatedly and wasn’t worried about the threat of submissions. Buckley’s fight IQ has improved tremendously – he’s making all the right moves now. No one will expect Buckley to come wrestle, but I think he will walk Covington to the fence, which could provide an opportunity to knock Covington to the ground. I think he is in the right mental and technical condition to do this.

X factor: Buckley’s physicality. At 170 pounds, he looks huge. And he is only 30 years old. Even if Covington can take him down with the more technical wrestling, Buckley has the physicality to simply say, “Get away from me” and explode.

Forecast: Buckley wins. It’s hard for me to say he’ll finish Covington because if Covington fights Buckley like he fought Edwards, it’s hard to finish someone who doesn’t take risks. Covington needs to be aggressive to win, but being too aggressive increases the chances of him being eliminated.

Betting analysis

Odds are correct at time of publication. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.

Parker: Buckley wins (-290), over 1.5 rounds. It’s a tough matchup for Covington. Not only has he not improved in any area of ​​his game, but he also recently left his team and is essentially training on his own. That’s not the best situation when you’re facing a fighter like Buckley. We already know what Covington will do – move forward at a menacing pace and try to wrestle Buckley for five rounds to a decision. However, if we know this, so does Buckley. Buckley has good takedown defense, and given Covington’s lack of punching power, I expect Buckley to stuff the takedowns and keep this fight on his toes where he will have the advantage. If you want to keep it simple, take the money line and make Buckley the anchor of your game. If you want a better chance, take Buckley to win and over 1.5 rounds.

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Parker’s best bets for the rest of the card

Light heavyweight: Vitor Petrino vs. Dustin Jacoby

Jacoby wins (+250). This bet is a value bet because I don’t think the odds make any sense. Petrino is coming off a first-round submission loss to Anthony Smith, but is still a 3-1 favorite over an experienced fighter who is the better striker. Jacoby is coming off a knockout loss to Dominick Reyes, but Reyes is a much better fighter than Petrino and someone who has fought the best in the world. Jacoby is the more talented striker here with a more versatile game. I’ll take that with more money than Petrino’s power.

Women’s Flyweight: Miranda Maverick vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth

Maverick wins from distance. No disrespect, but this will be the easiest matchup of Maverick’s UFC career so far. Nowhere in this fight is Horth better than Maverick, so I expect a dominant performance here. I have no concerns that Horth has only had one loss and has never been finished, as she has never fought against competition at this level.

Strawweight: Josefine Knutsson vs. Piera Rodriguez

Knutsson wins (-240). It’s more than likely that it’s win or go home for Rodriguez. She has suffered two straight defeats, finishing via submission and being disqualified for headbutting – not the best look. Knutsson is much better on his feet and just as good on the ground as Rodriguez. I would consider the Knutsson money line as part of a combination game to avoid having to bet on a winning method. However, if you want a better chance, Knutsson is the right choice by decision.