Updated playoff participation odds

Affect and effect. Too, too and two. There, you and they are. NFL and tiebreakers.

With only two weeks left in the 2024 NFL regular season, many people are thinking about tiebreakers. This time of year is full of countless playoff and clinch scenarios. Some are simple, others are like trying to build a toy on Christmas Eve with vague instructions.

One scenario worth seeing is the NFC West Division title. Seattle takes the field on “Thursday Night Football” and the stakes are high. The Seahawks once controlled their own destiny, but now the Rams can chart their course.

Here’s a look at the Seahawks’ playoff picture and how they can make their postseason dreams come true.

Seahawks playoff odds

According to BetMGM, the Seahawks, who can only make the postseason by winning the NFC West, are +500 to make the playoffs. That gives Seattle an implied 16.7% chance of playing more than the scheduled 17 games.

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How can the Seahawks make the playoffs?

Thanks to two losses in a row, the Seahawks are no longer in control of their destiny. Now they need help to reach Wildcard weekend.

With a game against the Rams coming up in Week 18, the Seahawks’ easiest path to the postseason is for their LA counterparts to lose in Week 17. A Rams loss on Saturday would open the door to a win-and-in scenario for both teams, who are locked in a battle for the NFC West crown in the final week of the regular season.

The Seahawks can be eliminated with a loss or tie against the Bears on “Thursday Night Football” and a win for the Rams on Saturday.

However, if the Rams lose on Saturday, things will turn sour and the Seahawks’ Week 17 result would become meaningless. They are expected to host the Cardinals, who are eliminated from the playoffs. Arizona won the Week 2 matchup 41-10. A lot has changed since then, but the Rams are not guaranteed a win, especially against a division opponent.

This loss would mean the Week 18 game between LA and Seattle would be for the NFC West Division title. In this scenario, Seattle would get in thanks to its better NFC West record.

If both teams win, Seattle can still hold on to its playoff dreams if it has some luck on the scoreboard out of town. This is where the strength of the win tiebreaker comes into play. The Rams are now in the lead there and can secure the tiebreaker this week with positive results in 3.5 out of 6 games.

The Rams would win this tiebreaker with 3.5 or more wins from the Vikings (vs. Packers), Bills (vs. Jets), 49ers (vs. Lions), Commanders (vs. Falcons), Bengals (vs. Broncos) and Browns ( vs. dolphins).

If both the Rams and Seahawks win, Seattle would be looking for at least four wins in the group that includes the Packers, Jets, Lions, Falcons, Broncos and Dolphins to stay afloat in Week 18.

Seahawks remaining schedule

The Seahawks have had a relatively easy schedule over the last two weeks, ranking as the 21st toughest schedule in the league, according to Tankathon. Seattle’s opponents have an overall winning percentage of .433.

However, the Seahawks will not be in the exhibition game at Lumen Field to conclude the regular season. While that would have been a concern in the past, Seattle is just 3-6 at home. Compared to their 5-1 road record, the Seahawks are comfortable living out of a suitcase, something they’ll get used to over the next two weeks.

Below is a complete overview of Seattle’s schedule:

NFC West standings

The Seahawks’ only path to the postseason is to win the NFC West. The wild card is out of reach, so the path to the Week 17 game is narrow but fairly easy. It’s been a mess all season between the four NFC West teams, and now there are only two teams left with two games to go.

Below is a complete look at the NFC West standings heading into Week 17:

Los Angeles Rams (9-6)
Seattle Seahawks (8-7)
Arizona Cardinals (7-8)
San Francisco 49ers (6-9)

NFL playoff picture week 17

AFC

Kansas City Chiefs (15-1, secured No. 1 seed in AFC, top of AFC West)
Buffalo Bills (12-3, AFC East leaders)
Baltimore Ravens (11-5, AFC North leaders)
Houston Texans (9-7, AFC South leaders)
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6, Wild Card No. 1)
Los Angeles Chargers (9-6, Wild Card No. 2)
Denver Broncos (9-6, Wild Card No. 3)

On the hunt: Indianapolis Colts (7-8), Miami Dolphins (7-8), Cincinnati Bengals (7-8).

NFC

Detroit Lions (13-2, NFC North leaders)
Philadelphia Eagles (12-3, NFC East leaders)
Los Angeles Rams (9-6, NFC West leaders)
Atlanta Falcons (8-7, NFC South leaders)
Minnesota Vikings (13-2, Wild Card No. 1)
Green Bay Packers (11-4, Wild Card No. 2)
Washington Commanders (10-5, Wildcard No. 3)

On the hunt: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7), Seattle Seahawks (8-7)

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Updated playoff participation odds

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