Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is eligible for free agency after the 2025 season, and his future is undoubtedly the biggest looming question facing the Blue Jays as they prepare for what could be their final year of control over the All-Star first baseman. GM Ross Atkins said at the end of the season that the Jays would look to begin extension talks this winter, and Guerrero himself confirmed in a recent interview with Abriendo Sports that those negotiations are happening (hat tip to Z101’s Hector Gomez and Ben Nicholson -Smith from Sportsnet). .

Guerrero reiterated that he was interested in staying in Toronto and was “ready to go” on signing an extension if the Jays meet his asking price. However, “wWhat they offered me doesn’t come close to what I’m looking forGuerrero said, pointing out that Toronto’s most recent offer was worth around $340 million. Remarkably, this offer came later Juan Soto signed his 15-year, $765 million contract with the Mets and completely reshaped the market for superstar players.

There may be limited time to close the gap between the two sides, as Guerrero said he told the front office he would stop negotiations after the first full day of the Jays’ spring training camp. It’s a somewhat unusual self-imposed deadline, as most players set Opening Day as the unofficial end point for reaching overtime. Obviously, an extension can happen at any time before a player hits free agency, but players generally prefer to just focus on baseball once the season begins, and therefore contract negotiations are usually limited to the offseason.

Of course, it’s not uncommon for some deals to not be announced until a few days or weeks into April, when talks are at the proverbial five-yard line before opening day and just a few final details need to be confirmed. Likewise, Guerrero likely won’t end all talks at the end of February, when he and the Jays have sorted out most aspects of a very lucrative (and therefore quite complex) extension. However, shortening the remaining negotiating window to about two months is a fairly public way to increase the pressure on Toronto’s front office.

This is pure speculation on my part, but the earlier deadline could also be Guerrero’s way of leaving the door open for a trade. If an extension cannot be worked out before spring training begins in earnest and the Blue Jays feel Guerrero will not re-sign next winter, the Jays could pivot and look to trade Guerrero for some longer-term assets before Opening Day. To be clear, if Toronto spends the rest of its offseason acquiring talent to compete again in 2025, it’s far more likely that the Jays will simply keep Guerrero to keep their roster as strong as possible in what could be a difficult season possible to hold last run for the Guerrero/Bo Bichette Core.

The length of the $340 million offer was not specified, but a ten-year, $340 million contract “only” brings an average annual value of $34 million per season, tied for the 15th highest AAV in the History of baseball is. Nine years and $340 million is an AAV of $37.77 million, which is the seventh-highest value of all time, surpassed only by the most recent contracts signed by Soto. Shohei Ohtani, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Zack WheelerAnd Aaron Richter. An eight-year, $340 million contract equates to an AAV of $42.5 million, putting Guerrero behind only Soto, Ohtani, Scherzer and Verlander.

However, Guerrero doesn’t turn 26 until March, so an eight-year contract only runs for the season he turns 33. Even a 10-year deal only gets Guerrero through his age-35 campaign, and a longer-term deal in the $340 million range only lowers the AAV even further. It’s not necessarily clear what Guerrero is seeking in terms of contract length, but in pure dollar terms it’s easy to see why he would balk at an offer worth just over half of what Soto (who also joins him) is worth season 26) received from New York.

From the Blue Jays’ perspective, the production gap between Soto and Guerrero would justify a profit gap, even if the gap isn’t quite as large as one might imagine. Soto’s big 2024 season with the Yankees sent his asking price skyrocketing, but looking only at his first six MLB seasons, Soto hit .284/.421/.524 with 160 home runs in 3,375 plate appearances, with a 154 wRC+ and 28.2 fWAR.

In his first six MLB seasons, Guerrero hit .288/.363/.500 in 3,540 PA, with the exact same total of 160 home runs and a 137 wRC+ and 17 fWAR. For both players, their value largely depends on their bat, as Guerrero and Soto are also below average in both departments based on public defensive and baserunning metrics.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic recently discussed what it might take to extend Guerrero and floated the idea of ​​a $500 million to $600 million contract. Assuming no deferred money is involved, that would make Guerrero the second-highest paid player in baseball history, behind only Soto. “As exaggerated as it may sound to the average fan…keep in mind that the Jays would have had to pay a premium for preventing Guerrero from testing the market. And if they lose him, their already angry fan base could rebel,” writes Rosenthal.

That last point is another overarching element of the Guerrero talks, as perhaps no executives in baseball are as hotly sought after as Atkins and team president Mark Shapiro. While the Blue Jays reached the playoffs in 2020, 2022 and 2023 after a rebuild, the club didn’t win a single game during those trips to the postseason, and Toronto’s slump to a 74-88 record in 2024 could be a sign that the Jays’ competitive window may already be closed.

Toronto’s fervent pursuit of Ohtani last offseason and Soto this winter suggested the owners were willing to go all out in the bid for top-tier talent. However, it remains to be seen whether the Jays see Guerrero on par with the other two superstars. It was only a year ago that Guerrero posted disappointing results with a 118 wRC+ in 2023, and there were questions about whether Guerrero was even worth a long-term investment. For comparison, Soto’s “worst” entire season as calculated by wRC+ was his 2019 season, when he posted a wRC+ of 143 in 659 PA, while he also caught fire in the postseason, helping the Nationals win the World Series.

Considering Guerrero specifically in the context of Soto is a comparison that Guerrero’s representatives at Prime Agency would likely welcome, as it even subconsciously keeps Guerrero tied to Soto’s elite pay grade. Rafael DeversThe 10-year, $313.5 million extension with the Red Sox is also often mentioned as Guerrero’s competition, as Devers also began his age-26 season. Guerrero has some statistical edge (Devers had a 123 wRC+ in his first six seasons before his extension) and thus an argument for earning more than Devers got in Boston, but perhaps the Blue Jays’ figure of $340 million reflected Guerrero’s idea as only slightly better than Devers.

Of course, it could also be the case that the Jays are willing to pay significantly more than $340 million, but they have offered that number as an initial indicator of Guerrero’s asking price following Soto’s contract. There is still plenty of time for the two sides to finally agree on an acceptable extension, and it could be that Guerrero abandons his early spring deadline if some progress has been made, even if a new deal is not imminent.