This holiday weekend promises to be a treat as we expect the top 10 to close between $120 million and $170 million in the 3-day range. This would make it the largest three-day Christmas frame in the post-pandemic period compared to December 2021 Spider-Man: No Way Home brought the total to $143.8 million. Over the past two years, this framework has reached a peak value of $94 million. There will be cinemas this week Sonic3 And Mufasa at the top, with two big-release newcomers and a powerful holdover battling for third place.

The checkout podium

Forecast of the three best films at the domestic box office | December 25th – 29th, 2024

Week 52 | December 25th – 29th, 2024
Top 10 of the 3-day series | Weekend 52, 2024: $120M – $170M

1. Sonic the Hedgehog 3
Paramount Pictures | Week 2
3-day weekend price: $35 million to $45 million
5-day weekend price: $55 million to $65 million
Showtime market share: 21%

Advantages

Sonic the Hedgehog 3 It is expected to lead the Christmas weekend with a 3-day range of up to $45 million and a 5-day range of $55-65 million. While neither sound still Mufasa release major league figures, taken together they have become, from an exhibition perspective, the equivalent of a single studio release. As for the second frames, the first sound meanwhile, saw a decline of -55% ($26.1 million). Sonic the Hedgehog 2 recorded a decline of -59% ($29.3 million), both of which the third film should easily surpass.

Disadvantages

If sound can compare its sluggish opening to an equal or better second frame of the 5-day recording, which will be a golden scenario for Paramount and theaters. Anything below our lowest projections will likely be perceived as underperformance, ultimately resulting in low growth for what has emerged as a promising new franchise for Paramount. The studio put a lot of effort into this film and created the runway ankle We stream series and give it the best Christmas tentpole placement, so there’s a lot to see on these sneakers.

2. Mufasa: The Lion King
Walt Disney Pictures | Week 2
3-day weekend price: $25 million to $30 million
5-day weekend price: $40 million to $50 million
Showtime market share: 18%

Advantages

There’s no getting around the low opening numbers of Disney’s big, expensive prequel Mufasaespecially compared to how well the 2019 remake did. However, this title has three advantages this weekend:

• The female audience, which in the last picture with 54% of ticket buyers (as opposed to sound).
• Solid audience rating with an 88% RT audience rating, “A-” CinemaScore and PostTrak 5/5 for parents and 4.5/5 for kids.
• The Lion King brand, which now includes film, television and Broadway.

The hope here is that the family audience that stayed away on opening weekend will now match or even exceed the numbers of the first picture. A good sign is that Monday’s numbers are already much closer together sound And Mufasawith the former estimated at $9 million and the latter at $7 million.

Disadvantages

Although we give Mufasa If in doubt, there could be a head-to-head race between the lions and the vampires. On the positive side Mufasa has more running times as it is a family film Nosferatu has a running time of over two hours. Last weekend was less outstanding Mufasa Underperformed and came in well below guidance at $35.4 million (a decline of over 80% from 2019). Lion KingThe $192 million bow). There could be strong awareness before publication Nosferatu a late push to win the weekend in 2nd place. The fate of the lion pride will ultimately be decided when the family audience is infiltrated on vacation Evil And sound again, and when the adult horror crowd shows up in large numbers to the R-rated counter-programming of Nosferatu.

The fight for third place

3. Nosferatu
Focus functions | NEW
3-day weekend price: $15 million to $20 million
5-day weekend price: $25 million to $30 million
Showtime market share: 10%

Advantages

We await the bloody but artful remake from director Robert Eggers Nosferatu to take third place despite strong competition. Horror audiences should respond with an early opening, best reflected in the 5-day collection, including big opening day numbers. This will be a record opening weekend for Eggers, with the 5-day frame ending somewhere between the entire national series The witch ($25 million) and The Northman ($35 million), it should come in at the high end of our guidance. Lily-Rose Depp also delivers a potentially award-winning performance, and the superb production will undoubtedly earn technical credit to keep the title alive during awards season.

Disadvantages

Although the reviews on RT, the new one, are quite positive at 88% Nosferatu is, at its core, simply a very beautiful retelling of a story that has been told to us many times before. FW Murnau’s original 1922 silent film classic was in itself a sort of “mockbuster” of Bram Stoker’s popular novel Dracula (which receives a worthy adaptation alongside Murnau in Eggers’ film). Countless versions of the story have emerged over the last century, including Universal starring Bela Lugosi, Hammer starring Christopher Lee and Francis Coppola’s 1992 blockbuster Bram Stoker’s Dracula…not to mention Werner Herzog’s own Nosferatu Remake in 1979. Focus parent company Universal has tried and failed to sell a compelling version of Dracula in recent years, including the story-driven 2014 version Dracula Untold ($55.9 million domestic) along with two 2023 entries: Renfield ($17.2 million) and The last voyage of Demeter ($13.6 million). The question remains whether Eggers’ carefully curated vision is enough to generate interest beyond opening weekend.

4. A complete unknown
Searchlight Images | NEW
3-day weekend price: $15 million to $20 million
5-day weekend price: $25 million to $35 million
Showtime market share: 8%

Advantages

dune Star Timothée Chalamet is gearing up for Oscar love by headlining the Bob Dylan biopic A complete unknown from co-writer/director James Mangold, whose 2005 Johnny Cash biopic Walk along the line scored an opening of $22.3 million and a domestic cume of $119.5 million, as well as five Oscar nominations, including a win for Reese Witherspoon. The real price potential suggests this film will have a long theatrical run. NosferatuHorror audiences appear to have the upper hand in the opening weekend, but Chalamet will attract younger viewers early and bring in older viewers in later weeks. We expect his domestic series to end A complete unknown to ultimately reach the finish line Nosferatu.

Disadvantages

Mangold has put the major financial problems of the last Indiana Jones film behind him and is returning to the biographical world in which he previously excelled Walk along the line And Ford vs Ferrari. The reviews are solid, but not exaggerated: Rotten Tomatoes has a 78%. Todd Haynes’ unconventional Dylan picture from 2007 I’m not therewhich starred six different actors (including Cate Blanchett) as the singer, flopped with $4 million domestically and $12.3 million worldwide – although it did earn Blanchett an Oscar nomination. “The Coen Brothers” 2013 Dylan-oriented folk singer film In Llewyn Davis It also failed to gain traction with $13.2 million domestically. The point is: Bob Dylan is a far more controversial musical figure than the late Johnny Cash (leaving aside the stale appeal of West Village folk music), even with Chalamet’s built-in female audience.

5. Evil
Universal Images | Week 6
3-day weekend price: $15 million to $20 million
5-day weekend price: $25 million to $35 million
Showtime market share: 8%

Advantages

Evil just won’t stop performing and being faster Moana 2 by landing at No. 3 in the final frame with $14.1 million and a domestic cume of $384.5 million. The start of Evil Sing-along movie theater screenings should boost sales over the Christmas weekend without having to worry about movie manners while you sing your favorite songs from your seat. At $572.5 million worldwide, it has a chance to pass the $600 million global mark and the $400 million domestic mark, both before Sunday.

Disadvantages

Despite EvilWhile the two new releases seem nothing short of magical, we think they have just enough power to make them hard to beat this weekend. However, we can easily imagine a scenario where one of these titles comes out on top. It is also possible for Moana 2 to push back strongly over the holidays, but the Witches currently have the momentum as the Animated Islanders saw larger percentage drops in the following weeks.