After playing just last week, Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State will play a return match, but this time with the Conference USA Championship at AmFirst Stadium in Jacksonville, Alabama. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET and the game will air on CBSSN

Given the Gamecocks’ uncertainty at quarterback and WKU’s explosive passing attack, I expect a close game for the C-USA crown in mine Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State Predictions And College football picks for Friday, December 6th.

Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State prediction and best bet

My best choice
Choose: Western Kentucky +5.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at the time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
Regardless of whether Huff plays or not, the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers have the talent to keep this game within five points. This Hilltoppers passing attack in particular should make a big difference.

Western Kentucky ranks 63rd nationally in EPA per dropback, while this Jacksonville State Gamecocks defense ranks just 97th by the same metric. In last week’s 2-point loss to WKU, Jax State surrendered 301 passing yards to Caden Veltkamp, ​​who was arguably the conference’s best pure passer all season.

After quarterback TJ Finley suffered an injury earlier in the year, Veltkamp stepped in and thrived with a talented pass-catching corps led by Kisean Johnson and Easton Messer. This trio is poised to power Jacksonville State’s defense, which ranks just 87th in SP+ and allows 27 points per game, which is 83rd in the country.

Obviously the biggest difference will be what this offense looks like with an injured Huff or Smothers. Rich Rod’s spread-option offense is once again cooking up defenses like it did in Morgantown, West Virginia in 2007.

Huff has been key this season. He ranks 19th nationally in rushing yards (1,176) and second among QBs. If he’s sidelined or unable to move like he normally does, it could completely change Jacksonville State’s approach.

It should also allow Tyson Summers’ defense to stop Tre Stewart, one of the best running backs in the Group of Five. Summers’ defense was quietly one of the best during the Tyson Helton era in Bowling Green.

WKU ranks 64th in SP+ on defense and allows just 22.2 points per game, which is 43rd best in the country. If the defense can contain Huff/Smothers and Stewart to some extent, the Hilltoppers will have the offensive firepower to cover.

Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State Match Game (SGP)

Western Kentucky +5.5

Caden Veltkamp Over 254.5 yards

Tre Stewart can touch down at any time

Veltkamp parlayed the momentum from last year’s unexpected bowl game performance into an impressive season as a starter despite not starting the year as QB1. He has thrown for more than 255 yards in six games, including two straight, and has the fifth-highest adjusted completion percentage in the G5 (77.9%), according to PFF.

In a game against an offense that ranks in the top 20 in the country in scoring (35.4 ppg), Veltkamp will need to get to the air early and often. Stewart’s skills on the floor are a big reason why the Gamecocks are able to do this.

He ranks seventh nationally in rushing yards (1,403) and sixth in rushing touchdowns (20). He has scored in 10 of 12 games this season and his ability to break tackles — 921 yards after contact, 65 forced missed tackles — should help him find the end zone against WKU.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

More Conference Championship picks from Covers

Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State odds

Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State live odds

Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State opening odds

• WKU vs. Jacksonville State spread: Jacksonville State +1.5
• WKU vs. Jacksonville State Moneyline: Western Kentucky +100, Jacksonville State -1202
• WKU vs. Jacksonville State Over/Under: 56.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State distribution and over/under analysis

• Jacksonville State opened as a 1.5-3 point favorite, with the line steadily climbing several points and most books now offering the Gamecocks at -5.5.
• While Jacksonville State is 6-6 ATS this season, it is just 1-3 since November, while WKU is 7-5 and was covered against the Gamecocks last week.
• The game total was just 56.5 to start with, with most books being between 57.5 and 58.
• The Gamecocks are 7-5 O/U this season, but the Hilltoppers are just 5-7 O/U. Last week’s game fell short of the total.
• 67% of Covers Consensus users support Jacksonville State on the spread, while 56% accept the under.

Things to know about the Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State betting trend

Western Kentucky has covered the spread in eight of its last 13 games (+2.50 units / 17% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State.

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