What are the chances of the Cyclones winning but missing the title game?

AMES – When the Big 12 released a series of tiebreaker scenarios for their spots in the championship games on Sunday, something interesting caught my eye.

Not so much in the scenarios themselves, although there are a lot of fascinating and strange permutations when you’re talking about four teams currently in first place and the tiebreakers in a 16-team conference with unbalanced schedules.

It truly is the chaos of the conference, and this weekend presents a great opportunity to do that in the amazing way only college football can.

What struck me, however, was the reaction of some — not all, but some — Iowa State fans to these scenarios.

It’s not about the circumstances that will lead the Cyclones, currently among the top four in the league, to advance to next weekend’s Big 12 championship game and try to win the program’s first league title, but about the most heartbreaking kind and ways Iowa State can achieve it miss the title game.

There was a real, palpable concern about the scenario in which Iowa State wins against Kansas State on Saturday (6:30 p.m.; FOX) but doesn’t get to play at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.

As if fully internalizing or anticipating that outcome would strengthen emotions against it should it occur.

“The (Athletic) Cup” mentality is how Iowa State coach Matt Campbell described it when I mentioned the feeling, although he used a more colloquial term for what the Cup protects.

And honestly, I understand. This fan base has a well-deserved penchant for fatalism. The feeling that the universe, the football gods or the ghost of Gene Chizik are constantly conspiring to deliver a worst-case scenario for Iowa State football. It’s understandable, perhaps even psychologically necessary, after the worst case scenario played out with uncanny regularity for over a century.

That mentality was best and most hilariously expressed in a tweet from an anonymous fan on Saturday night after losses to Colorado and BYU paved the Cyclones’ path to the title game.

“The fate of the Iowa State Cyclones now lies most terrible of all,” wrote the Jack Trice Mafia report, “in the hands of the Iowa State Cyclones.”

The prospects are somewhat justified, I say.

But I was curious, what are the chances of this nightmare scenario occurring? What are the chances of the proverbial hit below the belt? The gut punch. The “If there is a God, it is a vengeful God” scenario.

So, with the help of ESPN’s FPI game prediction analysis and Dan Nettleton, distinguished professor and chair of the statistics department at Iowa State, I set out to find the answer.

This is how the scenario plays out:

Iowa State beats Kansas State
Colorado beats Oklahoma State
Arizona State beats Arizona
Houston beats BYU
Texas Tech beats West Virginia

Then one or both of these results:

Kansas beats Baylor
TCU beats Cincinnati

The probability that the weekend will go exactly like this is 1.7 percent. To illustrate, the probability of drawing a single specific card from a deck is 1.9 percent.

“It’s easier to pick the right card than for this scenario to unfold,” said Nettleton, a self-professed sports fan who has co-authored articles on who would have won the 2020 NCAA Tournament and the NFL’s winning probabilities.

“They should be there if they win.”

However, if you want to feed your nihilistic squad and assume Iowa State University will win (according to ESPN they have a slightly better chance than a dime of beating Kansas State), there’s a 3.2 percent chance – which is the odds about rolling snake eyes with a pair of dice – that they are left out.

And if you want to monetize your fatalism, hedge your heartbreak, or bet on the football gods’ disgust at Iowa State, you can get involved in a six- or seven-legged bet that pays plus 4,006 (a $5 bet wins $200) . 3,347 ($5 win $167) or plus -6,480 ($5 win $324), depending on which scenario you imagine is most painful (Kansas wins, TCU wins, or both win).

More:Hines: Iowa State football has “everything to play for” against Kansas State.

More:Hines: Will McLaughlin and Iowa State football both come back from “rock bottom” with wins over Cincinnati

More:Hines Game Prediction: The most important month in Iowa State football history begins

So, for all you tired, worn out and worried Cyclones fans reaching for your protective gear – figurative or otherwise – this is what awaits you before the weekend.

However, there is another option.

“When I got here,” Campbell told the Register on Tuesday, “the expectation was, ‘Woe is me.’” As of 2017, there is no more “Woe is me.” There is an expectation and a demand to be the best. Sometimes we did really well and sometimes we didn’t, but that’s college football.

“We’ve proven in some great moments, some big moments along the way, that we’re at our best. We will definitely work like crazy to be at our best on Saturday night.”

This is the part of the story where it feels like Campbell is Robin Williams and you, dear reader, are Matt Damon in Good Will Hunting. It’s not your fault and it’s time to follow Minnie Driver to California.

Which in this case I guess means setting aside your, er, sports trophy and believing that the universe, the football gods, or the ghost of coaching past have it out for you.

More:Join Travis Hines’ Cyclone Insider SMS group for a behind-the-scenes look

“Being able to do it with our fan base and the energy and passion that this place represents, to give it something to be proud of and confident in,” said Iowa State’s all-time winningest coach “Boy, I’d hope we’re at that point.”

“After nine years, every time this team takes the field it gives our fan base something to be truly proud of.”

Is that enough to make the most jaded Cyclone fan laugh on Saturday, given the 1-in-52 chance of a kick in the soul without the protection of an emotional sports trophy?

“I’m more worried about the scenario,” Professor Nettleton said, “where they just don’t win.”

You know what? We see that as progress.

Iowa State columnist Travis Hines has covered the Cyclones for the Des Moines Register and Ames Tribune since 2012. Contact him at [email protected] or (515) 284-8000. FFollow him on X at @TravisHines21.

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