Let the debate officially begin.

Alabama Football or SMU?

This discussion occurred before the Mustangs played Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. Many could have predicted the debate. Now it’s official. The final spot in the College Football Playoff is expected to go to either the Crimson Tide (9-3) or SMU (11-2).

The Mustangs could have made it easy and beat the Tigers on Saturday. That would have kept SMU at No. 8 and Alabama at No. 11, both firmly in the 12-team playoff field. But Clemson accepted the ACC’s automatic bid by winning the conference 34-31 on a last-second field goal and will be one of the 12 teams regardless of where the committee places the Tigers on Sunday.

So Clemson is in, and Alabama and SMU will have to wait until Sunday at 11 a.m. CT to find out if they get to play for a national championship.

An SMU win would have been the easier and simpler path for Alabama to get back into the CFP. Friday’s Allstate playoff predictor gave Alabama a 99.7 percent chance of reaching the CFP with an SMU win.

With a Clemson win? 72%.

Not so good, but definitely possible.

CFP Chairman Warde Manuel left the door open for that on Tuesday. At the media conference, he was asked if SMU could fall under Alabama with a loss to Clemson.

“Possibly yes,” Manuel said.

It wouldn’t be the first time the CFP committee punished a team for losing its conference championship game. Look to 2023; Georgia was undefeated before playing Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. The Crimson Tide won, made it to the four-team playoffs, and Georgia didn’t make it.

So there is a precedent, albeit in a different format.

That doesn’t mean it will happen again. But it could.

The committee also has data points it can cite if it wishes to support Alabama’s argument. Entering Saturday, Alabama had the No. 17 seed on the schedule, according to ESPN. SMU entered the schedule with the No. 75 strength. Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide has a 3-1 record in games against teams currently ranked in the top 25 of the CFP. SMU fell to 0-2 with the loss to Clemson.

If the committee decides to send SMU to the playoffs, the committee could point to the fact that the Mustangs won 11 games while Alabama won nine. The committee could also decide that it does not want to penalize a team for playing its conference game while Alabama sat at home and did not play in its conference championship game.

Perhaps what hurts Alabama the most is that SMU didn’t lose much in conference play. Only up by three and losing on a 56-yard field goal. The committee could have cited the Mustangs’ bankruptcy defeat as a reason to leave SMU out. But the Mustangs fought through a deficit and made it a game until the last second.

Clemson beating SMU in a close game doesn’t necessarily mean Alabama is out of the CFP, but it certainly made Sunday a lot more interesting and unpredictable.