What consumer prices currently look like

What consumer prices currently look like

The pace of price growth accelerated in November, a sign that efforts to cool inflation in the U.S. economy may be stalling.

On an annual basis, the consumer price index rose 2.7%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. This was in line with expectations, but higher than the 2.6% seen in October.

Excluding more volatile items such as food and gas, the “core” metric rose 3.3%, an unchanged rate from October.

The stalled progress would be worrisome for the Federal Reserve, which had hoped to cut interest rates further at the start of the new year alongside slower price growth. Analysts now believe it is very likely that the Fed will suspend its interest rate cutting plans in January.

A number of factors likely contributed to the potentially challenging picture in November, including continued high rental prices and a recovery in used car prices, as well as continued rising vehicle insurance premiums.

In general, upper-middle class and affluent consumers use their purchasing power to help support the economy, which better protects them from price growth – but can also accelerate it. These consumers’ assets, such as stocks and real estate, have increased in value even as everyday purchases have become more expensive for everyone.

This is one of the main reasons Donald Trump performed better among less affluent voters in November’s presidential election.

However, it is unclear whether he will actually be able to ease the financial burden on households after his term in office. Economists said Trump’s proposals for tariffs and mass deportations would fuel inflation and hurt growth; The president-elect himself told NBC News last weekend that he couldn’t guarantee that tariffs wouldn’t ultimately lead to rising prices.

That complicates matters for the Fed as it tries to engineer a “soft landing” for the U.S. that lowers inflation without dramatically slowing the economy.

Wall Street traders are almost unanimous in their forecast that the Fed will cut its key interest rate by another quarter point when it meets next week for its final meeting of 2024.

After that all bets are void.

With medium-term household inflation expectations remaining high, the Fed “will not want to assume that tariff-induced consumer price inflation next year will be temporary,” Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a note to clients this week before the inflation report.

“Accordingly, we expect the FOMC (Federal Reserve) to cut interest rates less quickly than needed to stabilize the unemployment rate,” he said.

Furthermore, it’s not even clear whether interest rates in the rest of the economy respond substantially to the Fed’s rate cuts. Credit card rates continued to rise in the third quarter, while the average 30-year mortgage rate, although less directly affected by the Fed’s actions, remains just under 7%.

But the effects of higher tax rates seem to be felt primarily by consumers who are not doing so well. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, believes wealthier Americans have continued to benefit from the rapid rise in asset prices.

But this trend could easily be stopped, he said; In fact, many of these assets are already “overvalued.”

“Anything that doesn’t stick to the script” and changes the economic outlook, such as higher inflation or slower growth, “could trigger a serious sell-off and pose a problem for the overall economy,” Zandi said.

“It will all happen very quickly – everything will be fine and then it won’t be.”

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