DALLAS – On Sunday night, the New York Mets signed Juan Soto to the richest contract in baseball history – a deal that surpassed Shohei Ohtani’s previous record set last year by more than $300 million in today’s value.

So what does this mean for New York’s payroll over the next 15 seasons?

Well, get used to the luxury tax.

The Mets will not be subject to the luxury tax in 2025. I know, I know, it’s disappointing. Getting completely under the $241 million luxury tax threshold was always going to be unlikely this winter, and it would be impossible to achieve if the Mets were to sign Soto.

They are also not subject to the luxury tax for the remainder of this collective bargaining agreement, which runs through the 2026 season. The only money coming off the books after this season is for Starling Marte and Paul Blackburn. Edwin Díaz, Kodai Senga and Frankie Montas could also potentially disappear from the payroll through opt-outs and player options. But Díaz and Montas’ options are undecided, Senga has almost no chance of throwing enough innings to trigger his opt-out, and the Mets would have to replace all three if they were to actually leave.

As things currently stand, New York is expected to pay more than $200 million to eight players in 2026. The luxury tax limit for this season is $244 million.

We don’t yet know what the tax will look like in the next CBA. In the last four collective bargaining agreements, the first tax cap has increased on average by about 5 percent in the first year of the new agreement and by 16 percent by the end of a projected five-year agreement. If these historical norms were adopted, the tax threshold for 2027 would be around $257 million; the threshold for 2031 would be around $283 million.

The Mets currently have $175 million committed to their luxury tax bill in 2027 and $126 million in 2028 and 2029 (to Soto, Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo).

However, the first threshold is not the only threshold to consider. David Stearns, president of baseball operations, said in October that every threshold is important.

“I keep them all in mind,” he said. “They all come with different penalties — financial, draft pick compensation, potential international market eligibility. All of this concerns me and will play a role in how aggressive we are in certain areas.”

The third threshold, set at $281 million in 2025, is the most important. From that point on, the Mets would move their first draft pick back ten spots next July, give up money to the international amateur market and pay an additional 95 cents in tax on every dollar spent.

Could the Mets stay below that mark next season? Not if they have almost everything else planned this winter. New York needs to spend about $20 million below that threshold and fill vacancies in the rotation, bullpen, corner infield and DH. And you don’t sign Soto to go cheap on so many other spots on the diamond.

Again, it is unlikely that the Mets will fall below this threshold in 2026 either.

The bottom line: The Mets handed a superstar a record deal in his prime. Payroll should be designed to best complement that player for the duration of his prime, regardless of taxes.

(Top photo by David Stearns: Morry Gash / Associated Press)