The headline of the Atlanta Falcons’ recent announcement leaned increasingly toward “probable.”

The subtext on Tuesday night was more surprising.

The Falcons didn’t just bench veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins ​​for 14 games after signing him to a deal worth $90 million guaranteed at signing

They also gave the rookie, whom they selected eighth overall, the keys to the lock – indefinitely.

The Falcons may be focused on the Giants game. But the rest of the league is watching what comes next for Cousins ​​with at least as much interest.

Conversations with five league sources across coaching, management and representation provided context to Yahoo Sports in the hours following the Falcons’ announcement. The sources spoke on condition of anonymity because discussing the Falcons’ roster moves provides a competitive advantage.

Here’s a snapshot of the league’s pulse on some of the key questions surrounding the move.

Will the Falcons play Cousins ​​again?

Barring an injury to Penix, the answer from all corners of the league was a resounding no. Sources didn’t believe the Falcons would rotate between quarterbacks or even give Penix a tryout before naming him the starter. Cousins’ recent five games with nine interceptions and just one touchdown validated that decision. But part of the patchwork of reasons is that a play-caller and a quarterback struggle to succeed together; an Achilles tendon repair hangover that persists in the first season after the injury; and a desire to look to the future with a healthy runway for Penix rather than focusing on sunk costs. A source also mentioned the belief that Cousins ​​would not agree to a decision to fight for his job in December should the team make a week-to-week proposal.

League sources unanimously agreed with the Falcons’ decision to change quarterbacks now that Atlanta is 7-7, one game behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC South race. What they disagree on: whether signing Cousins ​​was a risk worth taking for the Falcons.

Were the Falcons right to sign Cousins ​​and draft Penix in the same offseason?

It’s easy to say that a change after 14 games at quarterback justifies failure. And as far as results go, the Falcons’ move is the case. From a process perspective? Most teams would rather have multiple darts to find a viable quarterback if they can afford it, and one source even suggested that Penix and the Falcons could benefit from giving him 14 games without the pressure that other draft picks have faced.

No. 1 pick Caleb Williams absorbed a league-high 58 sacks with the Chicago Bears, Penix learned on the sidelines. Drake Maye, the New England Patriots’ rookie QB and No. 3 pick, started taking hits later as New England waited until Week 6 to start him. Still, he’s been under pressure since then, with 14 dropbacks per game…not far off the 15.2 that drives Williams’ league-high 213 pressures, according to Next Gen Stats.

Waiting for Penix to launch is a well-regarded decision across the league. Having Penix in-house was more complicated, but also respectful. Just before signing an expensive contract with Cousins? An NFC executive said the Falcons likely prepared themselves to fall victim to criticism over the poor process once they signed both. If either quarterback wasn’t successful, let alone both, their decision to invest prime capital in both deserved scrutiny.

“You have backed yourself into a corner,” the executive wrote. “The only way for them to look good was if Kirk played well or got injured and the kid came in and played well.

“If they move Kirk, they’ll still pay him $62.5 million for one year. The boy’s early enlistment forced them to take this step. If they trade or cut Kirk and he goes somewhere and plays well, they’ll be in bad shape again. Not a good situation.”

What are the financial implications for Atlanta?

The Falcons owe Cousins ​​$27.5 million guaranteed in 2025. If he is still on their roster on the fifth day of the 2025 league year – which ends March 16, 2025 – they will owe him another $10 million in the early 2026 roster bonus with knowledge of the contract, according to a source. Cousins ​​also has a full no-trade clause, giving him a lot of autonomy in determining his 2025 team. That could hurt the Falcons if Cousins ​​follows a similar path to Russell Wilson.

After the Denver Broncos released Wilson last March, Wilson signed with (and now starts for) the Pittsburgh Steelers. But he didn’t help the Broncos with compensatory language that required them to pay for any part of his contract that wasn’t covered by another team. The Steelers are paying Wilson the veteran minimum of $1.21 million this season. The Broncos will pay him another $37.7 million in 2024. Expect the Falcons to also pay $26.3 of the $27.5 million next year if Cousins ​​plays elsewhere.

In theory, even if a team signs Cousins ​​to a multiyear deal, they could creatively structure it to essentially “borrow” $23.3 million from the Falcons in 2025 over the life of the contract. Even with a rookie contract for Penix, that will be too much for the Falcons. A league source believed Cousins ​​would have more leverage than Wilson on a multi-year deal.

Where will Cousins ​​play in 2025?

Sources in the management and agent world agreed that it is currently unrealistic to bet confidently on any outcome. There continues to be head coach, general manager and quarterback movement on at least a half-dozen teams. The draft cycle has yet to seriously heat up. Teams must weigh their options. But if they do, Cousins ​​will have one advantage: the relatively limited supply of starting quarterbacks expected to hit the market this year via free agency and drafts.

“Sam Darnold and Russell Wilson are the two starters (heading into free agency) and after that it’s a lot of guys that failed,” a source said. “The draft is terrible. The two guys at the top are not first-rounders who just go in the first round because they have to, but they have a lot of holes in their game.”

There will be teams more interested in a veteran with Cousins’ skills and proven resume than the benefits of signing Cam Ward from Miami or Shedeur Sanders from Colorado. This is not a draft with Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and others. It’s possible a team might want Cousins ​​as the bridge quarterback — Daniel Jones is also expected to fill that role following his recent release from the Giants — to make time for good-but-not-yet-good prospects to win in 2025.

Cousins’ recent struggles will give some teams pause. But he still played well in the first half of this season, earning four Pro Bowl berths, including as recently as 2022.

Working in his favor will be years of consistency as a solid quarterback and the belief throughout the league that mobility returns stronger in the second year after Achilles tendon surgery than in the first. Teams were also able to convince themselves that Cousins’ slump was due as much to dealing with a new player and his new weapons as to the quarterback’s pure ability. Getting the right fit for Cousins ​​and his next team is important.

Sources pointed to the Las Vegas Raiders, Tennessee Titans, New York Jets and New York Giants as possible places where Cousins ​​could start immediately in 2025. Dark horse candidates include the San Francisco 49ers, where Cousins ​​could reunite with 12-year head coach Kyle Shanahan after their two overlapping seasons with Washington and the Minnesota Vikings. The 49ers are expected (and should) be working with Brock Purdy in 2025 — but they are a team with high expectations that likes a strong backup and, if they wanted, Cousins ​​as a pawn in negotiations as Purdy’s window Megadeal could open for a season this offseason.

Interpersonal dynamics in Minnesota could complicate a reunion so soon after head coach Kevin O’Connell and general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah moved from Cousins. However, the irony of the potential football fitness that a reunion would bring is not lost on the league, as Darnold will likely command more than the Vikings want to pay and the rehabilitation timeline for injured rookie JJ McCarthy will create uncertainty.

Cousins ​​also has to decide whether he wants to continue playing in his 14th season at age 37.

If he does? Then he will be one of the biggest names on the quarterback market for the second year in a row.