What experts expect from the Ravens-Texans Christmas game

What experts expect from the Ravens-Texans Christmas game

The Ravens are almost unanimous that they will win in Houston

The Ravens kept their AFC North title hopes alive with last week’s convincing victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers. They will look to increase their chances of repeating as division champions when they take on the Texans in Houston today.

If the Ravens win their last two games, the Steelers would have to lose one of their last two to win the division. The Steelers host the Kansas City Chiefs in the first game of today’s Christmas doubleheader.

All but two of the 57 experts we surveyed predicted the Ravens (10-5) will beat the Texans (9-6), who have already secured the AFC South title. NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah and ESPN’s Seth Wickersham are the two who chose Houston.

This is what experts say about the game:

The Ravens will win, but it might not be pretty.

Luke Jones of Baltimore Positive: “In the John Harbaugh era, the Ravens are a mediocre 16-13 in games immediately following their meeting with Pittsburgh, which should serve as a warning coming off an emotional win and a short road week. The last one.” Baltimore will want to give a boot to a win over the Steelers, especially with the Chiefs offering a Christmas present earlier in the day. You never know exactly what to expect in a typical Thursday game, and there’s that certain something about a holiday that’s why I don’t expect either team to be particularly keen. Still, I trust the better, more experienced quarterback and superior running game to get the job done on the road.

The Ravens offense has the edge over the struggling Texans defense.

Jonas Shaffer of the Baltimore Banner: “The Ravens have the most efficient offense in the NFL, according to FTN. The Texans have the most efficient defense in the NFL. Sounds like a fair fight, right? Well, not if one side is in good health and the other is transitioning to emergency starters.” The Ravens’ only real question mark is wide receiver Zay Flowers’ shoulder injury, but coach John Harbaugh was optimistic Sunday that the Texans have a starting Linebacker and two starting cornerbacks would have and probably a starting defensive tackle. Oh, and star defensive end Will Anderson Jr. may not be fully healthy either.

If the game is a shootout, the Texans won’t be able to keep up with the Ravens.

CBS Sports’ John Breech: “The Texans have struggled this year when a game turns into a shootout, and there’s a good chance that happens against the Ravens. Baltimore is averaging 30.1 points per game, which is not good news for a Texas team that is 1-6 this season in which the opponent scores 22 or more points.

The loss of WR Tank Dell due to a season-ending injury last week will be difficult for the Texans to overcome.

Brooke Cerosimo from NFL.com: “A big concern is the fact that quarterback CJ Stroud will be without (another) of his top wideouts (Tank Dell) against a recently improved Ravens pass defense. Baltimore has allowed fewer than 200 yards through the air in four of its last five games (though the Chargers barely broke that threshold with 202 in Week 12) and has the second-lowest passer rating to opposing QBs (78.4) since the week 11.

Bleacher Report’s Ian Hanford: “I just don’t think Houston can put up the points necessary to beat Baltimore here. The Ravens are averaging about seven more points per game than Houston this season, and CJ Stroud just lost another weapon after Tank Dell suffered a devastating injury last week.”

The Ravens defense poses a formidable challenge to the Texans offense.

CJ Doon of the Baltimore Sun: “CJ Stroud will need to play at an MVP level to keep this game close, and while he’s certainly capable, the Ravens should be able to generate enough pressure and play tight coverage around the depleted passing game of Nico Collins and restrict Houston. Joe Mixon has that too.” I’ve had trouble finding space to run lately, so there aren’t many answers against an ever-improving Baltimore defense.

Bold Prediction: The Ravens will hold the Texans to under 14 points.

ESPN’s Seth Walder: “From Weeks 1 to 9, the Ravens barely stopped the pass and ranked 28th in EPA allowed per dropback. But as of week 10, they are in first place in the same category. The Texans don’t have a great ground game, despite a “strong start to the season from Joe Mixon. I expect them to have trouble moving the ball against Baltimore.”

Derrick Henry will look to continue his success against the Texans.

ESPN’s Jamison Hensley: “Henry averaged 102.2 rushing yards per game against Houston, which is his fifth-highest average against any team. “Houston ranks 10th in run defense this season (106.8 yards allowed per game), but the Texans allowed Kansas 124 yards on the ground on Sunday.”

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