TikTok will be banned in the US on January 19th – unless the Supreme Court accepts one last legal bid from its Chinese owner ByteDance that this would be unconstitutional.

But even if the nation’s highest judicial authority agrees with the lower courts — and Congress — that the platform poses a threat to national security, will that actually stop Americans from using it?

Will there be ways to get around the ban — or could President-elect Donald Trump find a way to stop a law he claims to oppose, even if the courts uphold it?

And whatever happens with TikTok, who will benefit from the uncertainty clouding its future?

The most likely way the US would ban TikTok is by ordering app stores like the Google Play Store and Apple’s App Store to no longer make it available for download in that region.

US lawmakers have already told tech companies to be ready to remove the app from their stores if a ban goes into effect.

That would mean people would no longer be able to access TikTok in a legitimate way – but it would also mean that people who already have it would still have it on their phones.

Since the app would no longer be publicly available, new updates would no longer be able to be delivered to users in the US – which would make the app more buggy and ultimately unusable.

Not to mention that many updates are provided to fix security vulnerabilities in apps. So if TikTok stops receiving updates, hackers could target millions of devices.

Of course, there are ways to get around such a ban.

There are already many videos circulating on TikTok that inform users about using a VPN (Virtual Private Network) – a way to give the impression that they are in another region.

The region of app stores can also be changed on most devices, so in theory anyone can access apps from other countries – but this can lead to other problems, not to mention the possibility of violating terms of service.

It is also possible to install apps downloaded from the Internet by modifying a device – which may violate copyright law – and carries its own risks. However, the government has also foreseen this and therefore proposes to ban “internet hosting services” from accessing the app.

So if the ban takes such a form, it’s likely that those determined to use TikTok once it comes into effect will be able to do so – but it won’t be the experience they’re used to.

There are other avenues available to the government in the future – for example, after India banned TikTok in 2020, it ordered internet providers to block access to the app altogether.

And even if people were to use a VPN, TikTok could theoretically look at a user’s device and detect if their cell phone number starts with +1, to tell if they’re based in the US, and then just give them a screen that says Present “App” is not available in your country.

It remains to be seen whether TikTok would decide to support the government in its own ban – but Reuters reports that it plans to do so.

TikTok’s own lawyer told the Supreme Court that he expects the app will be “forsaken” in the US if it doesn’t rule in its favor.

The complexity of the topic means that even experts are unclear about what happens next.

Professor Milton L. Mueller of the Georgia Institute of Technology – who filed a legal brief in support of TikTok – said there was a lack of clarity about how far the US could extend its powers to enforce the law, making it difficult to know. It is difficult to determine what technically happens when a ban comes into force.

But he said it was clear what impact it would have on users and the internet itself.

“It would completely legitimize the fragmentation of the Internet along national or legal borders,” he said.

Trump made it clear that he does not want the law to take effect and called on the Supreme Court to delay its implementation while he looks for a “political solution.”

However, if the justices confirm it, Trump will not have the power to repeal the law, which would take effect the day before he returns to office.

But he could simply tell the Justice Department not to enforce it.

The government would effectively tell Apple and Google that they won’t be penalized if they continue to provide access to TikTok, meaning the law would remain in effect but would essentially be redundant.

Obviously, companies might be uncomfortable breaking the law even if they’ve been told it’s OK – because that would effectively mean they have to rely on the president’s word that they won’t face punishment.

TikTok says it has 170 million users in the US who spent an average of 51 minutes per day on the app in 2024.

Banning TikTok or making it less usable presents a big opportunity for big tech competitors, says Jasmine Enberg, an analyst at Insider Intelligence.

“Meta-owned Instagram Reels and Google-owned YouTube Shorts are the best fit for displaced users, creators and advertisers,” she says.

Facebook could also benefit, although like all meta platforms, Ms. Enberg says: the controversial political changes The move announced by boss Mark Zuckerberg could potentially reduce its appeal.

Users bring advertisers with them – so a ban could mean a big financial boost for these platforms.

“Chief marketing officers we spoke to confirmed that they will redirect their media dollars to Meta and Google if they can no longer advertise on TikTok – this is the same behavior we saw in India when they launched TikTok in the in 2020,” said Forrester chief analyst Kelsey Chickering.

Lemon8, also owned by ByteDance, would have been an obvious place for people to go after a ban – but the law stipulates that it also applies to other apps owned or operated by the company. This means Lemon8 will likely have to be made inaccessible in the US too.

Other potential winners include Twitch, which has made a name for itself by hosting livestreams – a popular feature on TikTok. Twitch is primarily known among gamers, but continues to grow with other content.

Other Chinese platforms, like Xiaohongshu – known as RedNote to its US users – has seen rapid growth in the US and UK.

Still, some believe that no existing app can truly replace TikTok, especially the TikTok Shop feature, which allows users to buy products directly from videos and from which US creators make big money.

Craig Atkinson, CEO of digital marketing agency Code3, said there was no direct competitor that people could easily switch to – pointing out that his agency signed new contracts with clients to launch TikTok Shop as recently as December. to create campaigns.

Until now, ByteDance was firmly convinced that there was no question of selling its prize money in the USA.

But could that change if it is actually banned – and if a president who prides himself on the “art of the deal” returns to the White House?

Potential buyers are still lining up – with Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday However, the company is considering selling to billionaire Elon Musk TikTok has since described this as “pure fiction”.

Trump’s former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and billionaire businessman Frank McCourt are among those who have previously expressed interest in buying.

Mr. McCourt, a former owner of the Los Angeles Dodgers baseball team, said he had secured $20 billion in verbal commitments from a consortium of investors to make a bid for TikTok.

There is an even more left-wing – and significantly less reputable – proposed owner.

The biggest YouTuber in the world, MrBeast has claimed he is now in the running for a deal after being asked about it by billionaires.

While it may sound like a joke, he has a significant financial incentive to save the app – MrBeast has more than 100 million followers on TikTok.