The Atlanta Falcons’ back-to-back losses have left things uncomfortably close at the top of the NFC South following a much-needed bye week, giving them a chance to regroup and recalibrate.

The Birds entered this bye coming off their worst game of the season and fell to the floor in Denver. With the Buccaneers’ triumph over the Giants last weekend, only one game separates the top teams at the top of the NFC South. Atlanta owns the tiebreaker. as well as.

The Falcons will have the biggest possible logistical advantage over the 7-4 Chargers, who not only played last Monday but also travel across the country from California to Georgia for this game.

Let’s take a look at the circumstances under which the Falcons beat the Chargers in Week 13 and take a look at the scenario if they lose.

If the Falcons win

It would be a huge morale boost if they ended their stalemate and beat only their second opponent this season, who currently have a winning record. This would also end their historic losing streak against the Chargers, which currently stands at three games.

Looking at the schedule from a macro perspective, the Buccaneers will be the favorite in five of their last six games. If the score is actually 5-1, Atlanta would have to go at least 4-2 to win the division. Assuming wins (I know, that’s very dangerous) against the Giants, Raiders and Panthers, the Falcons would have to win at least one of their other three games.

These three opponents are the Chargers, Vikings and Commanders. Given the logistics and the fact that they’re coming off a bye week, this game against Los Angeles is probably their best chance for a win given this triumvirate. Win this game and the Falcons should be fine down the stretch “beating the teams they’re supposed to beat” unless Tampa just wins.

From a pure NFC perspective, with a Seahawks win and a loss to the Jets, Atlanta definitely has a chance to move back up to third place in the conference. If Tampa ends up chasing them in the division, piling up those wins will be crucial to at least securing their spot in the postseason as a wild-card representative.

If the Falcons lose

Their two-game losing streak, already a season-high, will extend to three games with a game coming up next weekend at the 9-2 Minnesota Vikings. This would be a recipe for a disastrous five-week stretch that has the potential to cost Atlanta the league and the season.

With a win against the last-place Panthers this weekend, the Buccaneers would move level with the Birds at the top of the South, although the Falcons would retain their lead via the tiebreaker. Tampa would be poised to regain that lead with another likely easy game next weekend against the Raiders while Atlanta travels to Minnesota.

playoffstatus.com’s algorithm currently gives the Falcons a 78% chance of making the playoffs. A loss combined with a Bucs win would cause that number to drop to 64%. Things could and should have been a lot more comfortable at the moment, but this unexpected loss to the Saints threw things into a tailspin.