It’s sooner than originally expected, but the Michael Penix Jr. era is upon us in Atlanta, 15 games into his rookie season and perhaps not a moment too soon.

After a disgusting offensive performance that resulted in a win that was much more difficult than it should have been against the hapless Raiders on Monday Night Football, the Falcons finally pulled the trigger and benched Kirk Cousins ​​in favor of the rookie.

Now the scenario is simple: Penix must lead the Birds to three wins in three games if they want to have a realistic chance of making the postseason for the first time since 2017. The first opponent on this list is the 2-12 New York Giants, who are fighting for the No. 1 overall pick.

Let’s take a look at the circumstances under which the Falcons would beat the Giants in Week 16 and take a look at the scenario if they lose.

If the Falcons win

They will earn their eighth win of the season, which would mark their most win in a single season since a 10-6 loss in 2017. If you’re keeping score, this team has won exactly seven games five times in the last six seasons, and it would be a major mental hurdle to finally change that “7” in the win column to an “8” for the first time in nearly a decade can.

Tampa Bay is the big team to watch down the stretch. If they follow their impressive win over the Chargers with disappointment and a loss to the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football, the Falcons will move them to the top of the NFC South and take the division lead based on the tiebreaker. This would mean that Atlanta’s magic number to win would be two and that they would control their own destiny.

Looking ahead to the wild card race, the Birds will need far more help. It’s not possible for them to make the playoffs without a loss to the Bucs this weekend, but they have a real shot at the final wild card spot if the Commanders lose to the Eagles and the Seahawks lose to the Vikings (both opponents). are among the NFC elite with only two defeats this year.

Perhaps most importantly from a long-term perspective, Penix would revive some of the fan base’s hopes for this franchise’s prospects with a good performance after failing at the quarterback position for the third straight year (this was the most expensive). Even if they don’t make the playoffs, three strong performances from the rookie QB would mean a lot for the franchise from a macro standpoint.

If the Falcons lose

They will suffer the embarrassment of handing the New York Giants only their third win of the season and likely have any playoff hopes completely dashed. They won’t be eliminated mathematically, but essentially it would be nearly impossible to predict a scenario in which they play beyond Week 18.

Tampa Bay can move to the cusp of the division title with a win over the Cowboys, as the magic number to go for would be one. Only a win for them in the final two games or a loss for the Falcons would see Tampa raise another division banner.

In the wild card race, the Falcons would have to lose to the Seattle Seahawks and Washington Commanders just to have a chance, and the Arizona Cardinals wouldn’t have to win. It would take a tremendous amount of help for Atlanta to have a chance.

Playoffstatus.com estimates the Falcons’ current playoff chances at 39%. In a worst-case scenario where both the Commanders and Bucs win, those odds would drop to just 1%.