What is Kessler Syndrome? Could it become a reality? What you should know

Spacefaring countries have been sending thousands upon thousands of satellites and other objects into orbit for decades, where they have become an integral part of modern society.

From hundreds of kilometers above the Earth, satellites can help scientists make observations about our planet and the surrounding universe, or even give us access to television and entertainment.

But what happens when these aging satellites fail and are no longer active?

Well, many of these objects – or fragments of them – are still there, slumbering above Earth in an ever-growing space junkyard. Because their removal is expensive, retired satellites are often left in low-Earth orbit, where their presence poses a growing threat to both future satellite launches and human space missions, NASA said.

Just this November, an incoming piece of space junk prompted the International Space Station to take action to maneuver itself out of harm’s way. A Russian cargo ship docked with the space station fired its engines for more than five minutes to “provide additional distance” to the chunk of debris, NASA said. While the incoming object, which was debris from a defunct weather satellite, was not necessarily on a collision course with the station, NASA said the evasive maneuver gave it a little more cushion to allow it to pass safely.

All this debris floating around in space could lead to a theoretical scenario known as Kessler syndrome. Here’s what you should know about space debris, why it’s a problem, and what’s being done about it.

What is space debris?

Space junk, also known as space junk, consists of inoperable satellites and other man-made objects that continue to race around Earth’s orbit long after their purpose has been fulfilled.

Spacecraft, spent rocket engines and even astronauts’ lost tool bags can connect with old satellites, forming a halo of debris in orbit that lasts for decades.

According to ESA, which cited data from the US Space Surveillance Network, humanity has launched around 50,000 tonnes of material into space since the beginning of the space age in the 1950s. The total mass of all space objects in orbit is estimated to be more than 13,000 tons as of September 2024. And of the 19,590 satellites launched since 1957, 13,230 of them – 10,200 of which are still operational – will continue to whiz around space at high speeds starting in September, the space agency says.

And the pace of satellite launches is accelerating.

Why is space debris a problem?

The risk of all these new objects shooting into space?

Together with all the satellites that have been stationed there for decades, ESA warns that the increasing risk of collisions puts humanity’s future in space in question.

In an incident in 2009, two satellites collided over Siberia. According to a report at the time in American Scientist, not only were both satellites – one of which was still active – destroyed, but the collision also created a whole lot more debris.

According to a 2022 NASA quarterly report, the International Space Station has avoided space debris 32 times since 1999 through December 2022. By October 2023, this number increased to 37 orbital debris avoidance maneuvers, including two in August of the same year alone.

When the ISS evaded space debris in November this year, it marked its 39th predetermined avoidance maneuver.

According to scientists, it is also not uncommon for some of these objects to crash back to Earth.

Earlier this year, a family in Naples, Florida, filed a lawsuit against NASA seeking more than $80,000 in damages to their home after a chunk of space junk from the International Space Station tore through the roof.

What is Kessler Syndrome?

All of this increases the likelihood, ESA warns, that a theoretical scenario known as Kessler syndrome could become a reality: if nothing is done, the accumulating debris and subsequent cascade of collisions could render Earth’s orbit unusable for space travel make.

“We see dramatically increasing use of space, but still insufficient technology to prevent the resulting risks,” Holger Krag, ESA’s head of space security, said in a statement last year.

What are NASA, ESA and others doing about space debris?

The movement to crack down on the dangerous debris hurtling through space appears to have grown stronger in recent years.

Many scientists have been sounding the alarm about Earth’s rapidly overcrowding orbit for years, but now the European Space Agency, NASA and other organizations around the world are beginning to take more concrete action. Last year, ESA adopted the Zero Debris Charter, which aims to establish a global commitment to almost completely eliminate so-called space debris by 2030.

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