What scenarios are there for Ohio State as it waits for the final CFP rankings?

Ohio State will be a spectator this conference championship weekend, but the Buckeyes will hardly be disinterested spectators.

OSU’s surprising loss to Michigan kept the Buckeyes from being eliminated from Saturday’s Big Ten title game in Indianapolis. They’ll watch Oregon and Penn State play for the conference crown.

The outcome of this game and the Southeastern Conference title game between Texas and Georgia will have a major impact on Ohio State’s placement in the new 12-team College Football Playoff.

As things currently stand, Ohio State (10-2) is expected to face Tennessee, Indiana or Alabama in a first-round playoff game on Dec. 21 at Ohio Stadium as either the No. 6, 7 or 8 team in the standings.

The Buckeyes are No. 6 in the CFP rankings. Tellingly, they are ahead of Tennessee (No. 7) and Indiana (No. 9), who also are not playing this weekend. CFP Selection Committee Chairman Warde Manuel said Tuesday that the resumes of the idle teams have been set. Even if Tennessee’s depth gets a boost with a win at Georgia – the Bulldogs beat the Volunteers 31-17 on Nov. 16 – Manuel said OSU would still be ahead of Tennessee.

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Ohio State’s ranking secures it a spot in the top eight and hosting a CFP first-round game at Ohio Stadium.

What about Penn State in the CFP?

Ohio State could improve its ranking if No. 3 Penn State or No. 5 Georgia lose, or perhaps if Georgia beats No. 2 Texas.

Penn State is 11-1, but lost to the Buckeyes in State College and did not play Oregon or Indiana in the regular season. The Nittany Lions’ best win came against Illinois, which is ranked 21st^st.

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Ohio State lost 32-31 to Oregon in Eugene in October. If Penn State loses by a significant margin to the Ducks, the committee will likely rank the Buckeyes ahead of the Nittany Lions based on their overall record.

Georgia has already suffered two losses and narrowly escaped unranked Georgia Tech in a wild eight-overtime game last week. Manuel said the committee found in its evaluation that OSU and Georgia are “very close.” If Texas wins particularly clearly, the Buckeyes could overtake the Bulldogs.

If Georgia wins in defeat, that could also spark an interesting debate. Texas’ resume is surprisingly thin for an SEC team. The Longhorns, whose only loss came against Georgia, do not have a win against an opponent ranked in the top 25 in the CFP. Their best win is probably last week against Texas A&M, which was ranked 20th.

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Considering OSU has top-10 wins against Penn State and Indiana, OSU’s record could look good compared to Texas. Unfortunately, the teams have a common opponent. Texas beat Michigan 31-12 in Ann Arbor in September.

The top four ranked conference champions will receive first-round byes. For example, even if Oregon and Texas won in losses and the committee ranked OSU as the fourth-best team, the Buckeyes would still have to play a first-round game.

Notre Dame (11-1), which does not play in a conference, will likely be the No. 5 team in the bracket unless Oregon loses to Penn State. Ohio State will be ranked in one of the next three spots.

If the Buckeyes had their preference, they would probably rather be the No. 6 seed in the group. That would put them against the No. 11 team in the first round. That’s currently Alabama, but it could change. No Big 12 team is in the top 12 of the current rankings, but the winner of No. 15 Arizona State vs. No. 16 Iowa State will clinch a playoff spot.

Perhaps more importantly, if the Buckeyes are ranked No. 6 and no lower, they would avoid a quarterfinal tie against the Big Ten or SEC champion. In that scenario, OSU’s most likely opponent in this round would be SMU if the No. 8 Mustangs beat No. 17 Clemson in the ACC title game or Mountain West champion Boise State.

Only one thing is certain: Ohio State will be in the playoffs and playing a first-round game. The Buckeyes vow to be a hungry and probably angry team after last week’s loss.

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What scenarios are there for Ohio State as it waits for the final CFP rankings?

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