DALLAS – Shohei Ohtani, time to renegotiate. Francisco Lindor, your guarantee is less than half of the guarantee of your new teammate Juan Soto. Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole, your former teammate’s new contract is worth almost $100 million more than both of your contracts combined.

Fifteen years, $765 million. Soto’s record-breaking free-agent contract makes Alex Rodriguez’s landmark 10-year, $252 million deal with the Texas Rangers nearly a quarter-century ago look like a quaint relic of a simpler time.

The Soto contract, the largest and longest contract in Major League history, runs through his 40-year-old season. It once again strengthens the financial power of New York Mets owner Steve Cohen. But the Mets need to move on, make their team even stronger and take full advantage of the five years that Soto will surely have under their control. If necessary, they can then face the inevitable question that arises in all long-term deals: What will it look like in the end?

The decision whether Soto exercises his release clause after five years ultimately rests with the team and not the player. According to a source briefed on the terms of the contract, the Mets can override Soto’s opt-out by increasing his average annual value over the past decade from $51 million to $55 million.

By then, Major League Baseball will likely be in the midst of a new labor agreement, with new national television deals and a more stable, lucrative local television landscape. If Soto continues to excel, he will likely be tempted to test the market again. And the decision to join the Mets entering his age-31 season may not be as easy as it seems.

Would Soto remain an offensive wrecking ball like Hall of Famers Paul Molitor, Edgar Martinez and David Ortiz did until they turned 40? Or would he experience a sharp decline in his mid-30s, similar to Hall of Famers Albert Pujols and Ken Griffey Jr. and future Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera?

The Mets’ deal with Soto demonstrated owner Steve Cohen’s financial strength and willingness to build a winner in Queens. (Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images)

In the excitement of the moment, Soto’s aging curve is the least of the Mets’ and their fans’ worries. For Soto, the Mets beat their big New York brothers, the Yankees, as well as the suddenly lost Boston Red Sox, the filthy-rich Los Angeles Dodgers and the desperate Toronto Blue Jays. Plus, Soto is such a force in the batter’s box that it’s hard to imagine him ever not hitting, whether in the final years of this contract or a new one that begins at age 31.

Yes, he is expected to move from the outfield to designated hitter at some point. How long he stays on the field will depend on his willingness to work on his defense and his health. Do you think Cohen is worried? He is a well-known art collector. And he just bought the baseball version of the Mona Lisa.

The value of these contracts lies in the early years. Soto’s contract begins in his 26-year-old season. A rival manager, granted anonymity for his candor, said Soto will be good for at least 10 years, “and that’s great.” Mike Petriello, top statistical analyst at MLB.com, pointed out that Soto has 201 home runs likely to reach .500 in his career and finish in the top five all-time in walks.

“In reasonably good health,” Petriello wrote, “(Soto) will be a top 10 hitter — not.” playerbut batsmen – to ever play.”

But with an average annual value of $51 million, it won’t necessarily be easy for Soto to reach his salary level. According to Fangraphs’ dollar metric, which converts WAR into a dollar scale based on what a player would make in free agency, he has exceeded the $51 million mark just twice, in 2021 and 2024. But the bigger problem is this: No one can predict the future, even for players as brilliant as Soto.

Between the ages of 26 and 30, Cabrera achieved five consecutive top-five MVP finishes, won the award in two consecutive seasons and captured baseball’s first Triple Crown in 45 years. If Soto comes anywhere close to that success in his age 26-30 seasons, the Mets will be thrilled. If the world turned upside down and he suddenly stopped hitting – or if his luck took a turn for the worse and he suffered a series of injuries, like Mike Trout – then they would probably stick by his side for another ten years.

That could be a problem: Cabrera remained a top hitter from age 31 to 33, but after that he became a detriment to the Detroit Tigers. From 2017 to 2023, between the ages of 34 and 40, his highest fWAR was 0.8. His overall fWAR was -2.0.

Trout seemed even more likely than Cabrera to achieve sustained greatness, finishing first or second in MVP honors in seven of nine seasons between the ages of 20 and 28 – and fourth and fourth in the years he “slumped.” fifth place. But due to injuries, Trout hasn’t played in more than 120 games since 2019, averaging 67 over the last four years, his seasons ranging between ages 29 and 32.

If healthy, Soto – at least as a hitter – would expect to age like Molitor, whose OPS+ was above average every year until age 39; Martinez, who had an OPS+ 41 percent above league average at 40; and Ortiz, who led the majors with 48 doubles and a .620 slugging percentage and led the AL with 127 RBIs in his final season as a 40-year-old.

(Ortiz was on a list of those who reportedly tested positive for a banned performance-enhancing substance in a confidential survey of players in 2003, but the substance was never revealed. He never tested positive after the league instituted a formal PED testing program introduced in 2004.)

Going back a little further, to the pre-PED era, the late Hall of Famer Hank Aaron hit 40 home runs in his age 39 season, passing Ruth as the all-time home run record, which had been broken since age 40 by Barry Bonds Ted Williams, a hitter Soto is often compared to, led the majors in on-base percentage and OPS the season he turned 40.

Soto is coming off a season in which he hit a career-best 41 home runs and finished with a .989 OPS, third-highest in the league behind Ohtani and Judge. For the fifth straight season, he finished with more walks than strikeouts. Alex Bregman, Steven Kwan and Luis Arraez are the only players in that span to do it twice.

Conclusion: Soto is a great hitter. He will remain a great hitter for the foreseeable future and probably beyond. By 2039, the final year of that contract when it runs out, Olivia Rodrigo could run for president, Freddie Freeman’s 8-year-old son Charlie could be named NL Rookie of the Year and the two Florida teams could compete in North Dakota due to global warming.

The Mets will enjoy Soto in his prime and perhaps win their first World Series since 1986. They’ll take care of the rest later. If they have anything to worry about at all.