First, it’s important to note how we think the College Football Playoff rankings will play out after all of Saturday night’s drama so we can rank each team within the bracket’s rules. The top four conference champions (does not have to be Power Four) receive first-round byes and are seeded based on ranking. The Power Four champions advance to the playoffs, the highest-rated non-Power Four team automatically gets in, and the rest are seeded based on the CFP rankings from there.

The projected and predicted CFP rankings

1. *Oregon Ducks# (Big Ten Champion)
2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (no conference affiliation)
3. *Georgia Bulldogs# (SEC Champion)
4. Texas Longhorns
5. Ohio State Buckeyes
6. Penn State Nittany Lions
7. Tennessee Volunteers
8. *Boise State Broncos^ (Mountain West Champion)
9. Indiana Hoosiers
10. Alabama Crimson Tide
11. SMU Mustangs
12. Miami Hurricanes
13. Ole Miss Rebels
14. *Arizona State Sun Devils# (Big 12 Champion)
15. South Carolina Gamecocks
16. Clemson Tigers# (ACC Champions)

* Awarded a first-round bye as the four highest-rated conference champions
#Automatic qualification to win the Power Four conference title
^Automatic qualification as top-scoring non-Power Four

At least this place will be drama free. There is little doubt that Oregon will be the No. 1 seed and will earn a bye in the first round of the CFP with its win over Penn State in the Big Ten Championship Game on Saturday night. The Ducks are the only undefeated team and have by far the best record ever.

Georgia is a flawed team, but after winning the SEC Championship game, they will most likely get the benefit of the doubt after beating Texas twice now this season. The SEC champions will always play well, and despite some tough losses, the Bulldogs have a conference championship hanging around their necks for show.

Keep in mind that in the CFP round, the four highest-ranked conference champions receive a first-round bye, so Boise likely ends up here as the third-highest among them as a one-loss Mountain West champion. Proponents of the expanded playoffs love this because Boise probably wouldn’t even be in the field in the old four-team CFP model. Now it gets 3rd place and a ticket to the party.

Things get a little crazy here. Because of the Big 12 and ACC’s deficits this year, an Arizona State team that is unlikely to be ranked in the top fifteen will not only receive a chip to play the game, but also a bye to first Round. You can thank Clemson’s win in the ACC title game for that, as the Tigers will be well outside the top 12, but the ACC champion pushes ASU into a top spot.

As an independent, Notre Dame, as conference champions, cannot receive a first-round bye and will therefore almost certainly be placed at No. 4 in the highest seed. The Fighting Irish have one of the worst losses on their resume, but that’s their only loss. With the way this group is shaping up, number 5 is actually a pretty coveted spot and the Irish will be happy with that.

Many sports bettors saw the Longhorns as the betting favorites to win the national title, but that has to be called into question after their second loss of the season to Georgia. This is all about where Texas will fall in the CFP rankings, and it likely won’t fall too far behind and still be in the top five, so there’s a really good chance that Quinn Ewers and Co. will end up here.

OK. This is where things get REALLY interesting. What will the CFP committee do with Penn State? The Nittany Lions gave the Oregon Ducks everything they could, but the same was true for Ohio State in a point loss to Eugene. Both teams have two losses, OSU’s wins are better, and that includes a straight win over Penn State. This has to be important, right? If not, we cannot understand why the games are being played. For this reason, we’re placing OSU one spot ahead of Penn State, which puts it at No. 7, which, by the way, isn’t ideal (more on that in a moment).

For the reasons stated above, we believe the CFP Committee MUST drop Penn State just below the Buckeyes, which will result in the Nittany Lions receiving the No. 8 seed and being the last team awarded a home game. There are simply no great wins on this resume and you can’t reward a team with two good losses. At least that’s what we think before the committee uses every possible reason to justify otherwise.

We all thought there was a pretty good chance that Tennessee in the Shoe would face Ohio State in a first-round game, but based on Saturday’s results, as mentioned, that may no longer be the case. The Vols could find themselves in the awkward position of narrowly missing out on hosting a playoff game. But hey, they’re on the field, so get excited and make some noise.

Welp, that’s not ideal, but we don’t see any way the one-loss Hoosiers won’t snag the No. 10 pick depending on where things fall. That means they will play the No. 7 seed, and if Ohio State is what we think it is, there will be a rematch on the banks of the Olentangy. Indiana would finish higher if there was even one notable ranking win, but no. Look for Indiana to put up a better fight against OSU this time if things turn out that way.

And now to the most controversial point. Clemson essentially stole a bid with its win over SMU in the ACC Championship Game, and that means the CFP committee will have a heated debate between the Mustangs and Crimson Tide. In the end it’s SMU vs. Alabama and we’ve seen in the past where the brand wins. There’s more than a good chance that happens here, although SMU’s ability to rally in the second half Saturday night and lose by a field goal at the end of the clock will add to the intrigue.

This is another spot that we think is secured. Clemson only gets into the CFP by winning the ACC Championship Game and will be the last remaining seed at No. 12. Yes, the Tigers have three losses and are lacking good moments, but they won the damn game and are a Power Four Conference champion. This tops everything and brings Dabo Swinney’s team into the field. Awe sucks.

Bye in the first round

No. 1 seed – Oregon (Big Ten Champion)
No. 2 seed – Georgia (SEC Champion)
No. 3 seed – Boise State (Mountain West Champion)
No. 4 seed – Arizona State (Big 12 Champion)

First round matches with higher seed hosting

No. 5 seed Notre Dame vs. No. 12 seed Clemson
No. 6 seed Texas vs. No. 11 seed Alabama
No. 7 seed Ohio State vs. No. 10 Indiana
No. 8 seed Penn State vs. No. 9 seed Tennessee