Expectations were high in the summer of 2023 when the Portland Trail Blazers selected Scoot Henderson with the third overall pick in the NBA Draft. No one expected Henderson to move level with first overall pick Victor Wembanyama, but many pundits labeled him a clear second choice.

87 games into his career, Henderson comes off the bench for the Blazers in the midst of his second straight season of ups and downs. The sporadic nature of his development has led to near-constant questions, including this one from the Blazer’s Edge Mailbag.

Dave,

I know not everyone is sold on Scoot, and I can’t really say they are. Scoot is 20 years old. At his age, you would expect him to play in college, but he never went. He obviously played in high school and then played two years in the G-League before coming here. Can we really say he proved himself when Cronin took him third overall?

Martin

Ah, the eternal question. And it’s still one of the Blazers’ most important games.

The only thing that matters now is:

11.3 points, 5.1 assists, 2.7 turnovers in 25.8 minutes per game with 39.8% field goal shooting and 30.3% from the three-point arc.

Of course, there are many advanced metrics as well, but the bottom line is Scoot is what Scoot is. History, draft position, team needs, past expectations… none of it changes his performance on the floor. While things are improving in some areas – his turnovers are down slightly and his steals per minute are up – he’s still not what you’d call a good point guard.

Here are the initial strengths NBADraft.net listed for Henderson in preparation for the 2023 NBA Draft:

Henderson is a 1.90 meter tall guard with outstanding length (wingspan is said to be around 1.90 meter) and already has a strong physique as a 19-year-old… He also has outstanding athleticism, as he has first-class speed, agility and body control and explosive jumping ability from one or both feet… Aggressive; has very little trouble getting where he wants to go on the field, even when turning the corner against ball protections or traps, and does an excellent job of putting pressure on the defense with his attack and speed, but also to braking and/or stopping quickly to hold Defenders are thrown off balance… Absorbs contact and is rarely knocked off his pivot when driving to the rim… Can also land powerfully at the rim over and through defenders due to his strength and jumping abilities… Acts like to be on point Attacking prowess to generate attacking power for himself and his teammates and feels most comfortable when he has the ball in his hands… It is very difficult to stay in front of this player due to his deft footwork, great first step and outstanding Ball handling skills he displays…

This paragraph may sound familiar to you. It pretty much describes Henderson’s talents and style a season and a half later. The only thing you would argue about is finishing at the rim, simply because it was more difficult for him against defensive players at the NBA level.

Here are the corresponding weaknesses:

3-point shooting needs improvement (27 3FG%); Added range and consistency would make him an even more dangerous matchup problem on offense…Currently he is more comfortable taking lower percentage shots off the dribble than open with his feet planted (42 FG%)…Will inevitably have the courage to to shoot deep shots and he has to prove that He has to be guarded in the screen game to keep the defense honest, which affects spacing considering how often he does these types of actions… He gives sets the pace well, but sometimes spends too much time pounding the stone, which is quite possible to stagnate the offensive flow… The natural flair for being a playmaker for others can improve; Sometimes he takes rash shots before getting the offense going…Given the pressure he puts on defense, his lack of appearances in the G-League’s charity league was disappointing (2.9 FTA/G, at 76.4% ) … A Defense is still being worked on, ball possession after ball possession is not yet constant…

I don’t think Scoot “spends too much time pounding the stone.” That’s one of the things that has improved since his rookie season. But the rest still seems appropriate.

To put it briefly: Scoot is Scooting. He has gradually improved, but he has not become anything more than what he was.

The fear is not that we don’t know who Scoot is, but that we do. And it amounts to 11.3 points, 5.1 assists, 2.7 turnovers in 25.8 minutes per game on 39.8% field goal shooting and 30.3% from the three-point arc. We would rather believe there is more evidence than accept this as the ultimate reality. That’s one of the reasons we have so many questions about him.

To answer your question directly: Scoot was hyped, but it wasn’t proven that he was coming to the NBA, and that still isn’t the case today. However, the longer current trends continue, the closer it gets to what is tried and tested. You just won’t like the evidence.

To address the implications behind the question: Yes, point guard is a difficult position to learn. We still won’t know if Scoot has more to offer in the next few years. He has time to improve.

However, for every story of a player who revolutionized his game in his first few seasons, there are eight players who failed to do so. This is especially true for the point guard position. The same difficulty that leads us to avoid making judgments about point guards who are too young also warns us against actually making the jump hard. The odds are not good for Henderson at the moment.

None of this is fundamentally a problem. It’s part of the NBA’s natural progression. The problem, if anything, is that the Blazers desperately need a point guard. The gap between Scoot’s performance and Portland’s roster needs is causing tension. If this were 1991 and Henderson was playing behind Terry Porter and Danny Ainge, his development would be an oddity with only upside, third overall pick or not. That is not the case. The Blazers have decisions to make about their future. Knowing Henderson’s ceiling and the likelihood of him reaching it would go a long way in determining their next steps.

This isn’t just about Henderson, but about what the Blazers want and will demand from him. If you need a million dollars by next Christmas, you don’t want to ask someone who starts digging in their pockets and rummaging through the couch cushions for change. For all you know, he might be able to come up with a hefty sum, but you really want the guy who drives up in a Rolls Royce. Maybe that’s what the Blazers were hoping for with Scoot. It’s not what they have. Fear is the inevitable outcome, fair or not.

Breaking the development cycle seems to be the best option for everyone involved at the moment. It’s unlikely that other teams will beat down Portland’s door to get Scoot. The Blazers are better off betting on his potential cap than waiving him. Maybe another year or a new coach will make a bigger difference. Who knows? However, conclusions are unlikely to be drawn soon, nor will they be direct. You might want to get a bottle of antacid and decide to evaluate Scoot from season to season (like the team does) as he works from game to game the way a player must. One day these different timelines may overlap, but for now the perspectives are too far apart to provide meaningful results.

One way or another, Henderson will prove himself in the end. The crucial question is: as what? I know “wait and see” is an unsatisfactory answer to the development question, but that’s all Scoot and the Blazers have right now, so here we go.

Thanks for the question! You can always send yours to [email protected] and we will answer as many as possible!