As the 2024 NFL season continues, many fans are already dreaming of the playoffs and beyond into the offseason. One of the topics being discussed a lot, of course, is the need for the Seattle Seahawks to free up cap space for 2025, as the team is hoping for nearly $15 million against a projected cap hit of $272.5 million. There is certainly a possibility that the cap could be higher like it was this year, but regardless of where it is, decisions need to be made.

Looking at the cap hits of next season’s roster members, the players with the three biggest cap hits have garnered the most attention from fans. These three are, in order of cap hit:

• Geno Smith: $38.5 million
• DK Metcalf: $31.875 million
• Tyler Lockett: $30.895 million

It seems almost guaranteed that something will happen to Lockett’s contract, whether he decides to opt out or the team restructures his contract like they did last offseason. With Metcalf entering the final year of his contract, an extension to lower the cap hit would be a surprise to almost no one.

That leaves Geno Smith, whose $38.5 million cap hit will likely increase by the start of the 2025 league year in March.

Specifically, for those who may have forgotten, Smith is due a $10 million roster bonus in March, and his contract includes several escalators that could increase the amount of that bonus. Specifically, Smith can earn $2 million if he exceeds his 2022 performance in each of the following categories:

• yards
• touchdowns
• Completion percentage
• Passerby rating
• Wins/Playoffs

With that in mind, this is where Geno currently stands when it comes to potentially achieving each of these incentives.

Therefore, Smith will need to average just over 200 yards per game for the rest of the season to earn the passing yards incentive, and the only game he finished with under 200 yards passing was the season-opening win over the Denver Broncos . That said, as long as Smith stays healthy and continues to play, he should take advantage of this incentive. Since the Seahawks are at 8 wins and 10 wins allows him to hit the win incentive, that’s a second incentive he’s likely to hit.

However, when it comes to passer rating and touchdown passes, Smith is far enough away that he’s unlikely to accomplish either. It’s certainly possible he could have a few big multi-touchdown games and make it close, but even four touchdowns per game in each of the remaining four games wouldn’t be enough to get the touchdown incentive.

Completion percentage, however, is a different story. With a current rate of 69.5%, he only needs to complete four passes in a row to bring his season completion percentage above the threshold needed to earn the additional $2 million. So don’t be surprised if the offense throws in an excessive amount of easy completions like wide receiver screens and pop passes over the last four games to give Geno a little extra credit.

In short, when looking at the Seahawks’ 2025 salary cap, it’s important to keep in mind that it’s extremely unlikely that Smith’s $38.5 million cap hit will stay at that number, because as long as Geno stays healthy, that cap will continue to rise likely to increase to $42.5 million or $44.5 million by the offseason.