A decade ago, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau emerged triumphantly onto the international political stage after his first term in power.

With his boyish charm, inclusive vision and backing of a political dynasty, he gained global appeal almost immediately.

He is now the focus of speculation as rumors grow that his unpopularity will prompt him to announce his retirement in the coming days.

So how did we end up here?

Why are there calls for Justin Trudeau to resign?

In many ways, Mr. Trudeau’s popularity waned as quickly as it had spread.

By 2021, his party had lost several seats in parliament due to a series of controversies.

The loss forced him to form minority governments with Canada’s left-wing New Democratic Party.

But recently its popularity has hit historic lows, driven by the departure of several key allies and pressure on the cost of living.

In December, Mr. Trudeau’s deputy prime minister and finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, abruptly resigned after a dispute over the new Trump administration.

President-elect Donald Trump said he plans to impose sweeping 25 percent tariffs on all Canadian products.

Ms. Freeland and Mr. Trudeau reportedly clashed over disagreements over how to deal with the threat.

Specifically, in her resignation, Ms. Freeland called the recently announced tax holiday and plan to send C$250 ($278) checks to millions of Canadians “costly political games” that Canada can “ill afford.” .

“Our country faces a great challenge,” Ms. Freeland wrote.

Shortly before Ms Freeland announced her decision, Housing Minister Sean Fraser also quit.

An attempt to reshuffle his cabinet then prompted New Democratic Party leader Jagmeet Singh to publicly call for Mr. Trudeau to resign.

Mr Singh said he would move a no-confidence motion in the next meeting.

“Then they keep letting people down.

“Justin Trudeau has failed in his greatest job as prime minister: working for the people.”

How did Trudeau come to power?

Mr. Trudeau took over the leadership of the Liberals at a difficult time for the party.

In 2013, the party was out of power for more than seven years and fell to third place in the lower house for the first time.

The son of former Liberal Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, Mr. Trudeau quickly emerged as a young and charismatic politician.

His leadership and message of hope – not unlike Barack Obama’s – secured his victory in 2015.

Mr. Trudeau honed a brand focused on feminism, environmentalism and Indigenous advocacy.

When asked about gender equality in his cabinet, his pointed answer became a rallying cry for supporters worldwide.

Mr. Trudeau’s political honeymoon didn’t last long.

The same gender equality was later thrown out of balance when two of his cabinet ministers were caught up in a corruption trial in 2019.

What other controversies did Trudeau face?

In 2016, Canada’s ethics commissioner ruled that Mr. Trudeau had violated conflict of interest rules by accepting vacations, gifts and flights from the Aga Khan.

It was the first time a Canadian prime minister had been accused of such a transgression.

Shortly after the start of the 2019 election campaign, photos of Mr. Trudeau wearing blackface also emerged.

The photos were particularly distressing for Mr. Trudeau, who had made a name for himself as a champion of multiculturalism.

He later apologized, saying his privilege had given him a “massive blind spot.”

“Facial obscuration is always unacceptable regardless of the context or circumstances due to the racist history of blackface,” he said.

Aside from domestic tensions, Mr. Trudeau is at the center of a strained relationship with India, as Canada is currently conducting an investigation into India’s role in the alleged killing of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar.

Mr. Trudeau said there were credible allegations that the Indian government had links to Mr. Nijjar’s killing in Canada.

In response, India has condemned Mr. Trudeau for being soft on supporters of the Khalistan movement, which it describes as extremists.

In August 2023, Mr. Trudeau also announced that he would be separating from his wife Sophie Gregoire Trudeau after 18 years of marriage.

What happens now?

The House of Commons is in winter recess until January 27, meaning we won’t know the outcome of Mr Singh’s motion of no confidence until then.

Assuming the government allocates opposition days at the end of the session, the most likely time for Mr Trudeau’s removal would be the last 10 days of March.

This would trigger an election sometime in May.

However, Canadian newspaper The Globe and Mail said Mr Trudeau was expected to announce his resignation before a national caucus meeting on Wednesday local time.

If he does, he will leave his party without a leader before this year’s election.

The Liberals will be forced to name an interim leader to take over as prime minister while the party convenes a special leadership convention.

This convention could take months to plan, and if an election were called before then, the Liberals would be in the hands of a prime minister not elected by members.

Alternatively, Canadian governments must demonstrate that they have the confidence of the House of Commons.

If votes on budgets or other spending are considered measures of trust and the government loses one, the value drops.

In most cases, an election campaign begins immediately.

ABC/Reuters