Why Georgia has a lead over Notre Dame, even with a backup quarterback

Why Georgia has a lead over Notre Dame, even with a backup quarterback

Everyone knows this Georgia team isn’t as good as the last three, even with Beck under center. That’s what Smart said after the Bulldogs won the SEC championship game. But Smart also said this is the toughest team he has ever coached at Georgia. This isn’t just chest-thumping bravery. The Bulldogs proved it by playing through a tough schedule to make the playoffs.

The Irish don’t know what it’s like. They did not play any of the teams in the CFP field during the regular season. Notre Dame played only one team in the last Top 25, No. 23 Army. Georgia played five games against teams from the CFP field in the regular season and won four. The Bulldogs lost at No. 11 Alabama and No. 14 Ole Miss. Notre Dame lost at home to Northern Illinois.

The Irish have won 12 straight games since that embarrassing loss. Only one had a lead of less than 10 points. Notre Dame dominated Indiana in Friday night’s first-round game. Quarterback Riley Leonard is a big part of Notre Dame’s strong running game and has improved his passing game. Notre Dame’s defense rarely allows big plays, creates a lot of turnover opportunities and is great on third downs.

The Irish are a very good team. They just haven’t been tested nearly as much as Georgia. For the Bulldogs, Notre Dame is just another great defense to conquer. Leonard is just the latest good quarterback they can upset.

Before the game against Indiana, the Irish ranked No. 5 in ESPN analyst Bill Connelly’s defensive SP+ metric (efficiency adjusted for opponent and situation). The Bulldogs have played four games against the top five defensive teams and have only played against two bottom teams (UMass and Mississippi State). We’ve seen them grind to victory against opponents who showed little relent.

The Irish have put up big numbers on offense (No. 3 in scoring), but how will they respond if Georgia’s 11th-ranked defense makes things difficult for them? You don’t have much experience with this. They only faced two top SP+ top 20 defenses (Texas A&M and Indiana) and six teams ranked 60th or lower. We have seen them achieve victories against opponents who do a lot.

Notre Dame can produce yards on the floor. Leonard and running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Prince operate behind a large and physical offensive line. That describes several teams in the SEC. Georgia struggled to slow some of them down, but Texas (twice), Ole Miss and Tennessee struggled to find space to compete against the Bulldogs.

Stockton is the wild card. Beck’s performance has dipped this season, but he has been on the rise lately. Now Stockton will make its first collegiate start against a great defense. But he’ll have more help than Beck has had lately. Running back Travis Etienne returned to the SEC Championship game after a month on the injured list and looked great while totaling 122 yards and two touchdowns.

Things get fast-paced in the Sugar Bowl. That suits the Bulldogs. It’s SEC-style football. Non-conference opponents could not match Georgia. Texas is the only country to beat the Bulldogs in the 2019 Sugar Bowl since the start of the 2017 season. Georgia’s 4-0 CFP record against non-SEC teams includes wins against some of the best teams those programs have ever produced.

Oklahoma lost to Georgia with Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield at quarterback. Georgia earned CFP victories over Ohio State and Michigan when those teams had future high NFL draft picks in quarterbacks JJ McCarthy and CJ Stroud. Outside the CFP, the Bulldogs beat Oregon when they had QB Bo Nix, who is having a good rookie season for the Broncos (the Falcons are among his victims).

The Bulldogs simply don’t lose to teams that aren’t in their league, no matter how good those teams may be. Maybe that will change now that UGA has slipped a bit. The Bulldogs are more likely to beat Notre Dame and any non-SEC team that advances to the bottom of their group. They may play backup quarterback, but they’re sharpened by the SEC grind.

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