Will Arizona State get a bye into the College Football Playoff after winning the Big 12?

On Saturday afternoon, Arizona State left little doubt about who the Big 12’s best team was during the 2024 college football season.

The Sun Devils capped their 11-2 regular season with a dominant 45-19 win over Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship Game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, rushing for 208 total yards and three touchdowns en route to a slumping 11-2 season Cam Skattebo won.

It was an exclamation point on one of the best stories in college football this season, as Arizona State won a conference that had it picked to finish last in the league’s preseason poll.

Required reading:College Football Playoff Predictions: Live CFP bracket predictions for a 12-team field

Although coach Kenny Dillingham and the Sun Devils will spend much of their Saturday rejoicing in their accomplishments, they still have questions that won’t be answered until Sunday. The win against the Cyclones secured Arizona State a spot in the College Football Playoff as one of the five top-seeded conference champions.

But where will it be once it’s in the 12-man field?

Here’s what you need to know about Arizona State and where it could land in the College Football Playoff:

Is Arizona State in the College Football Playoff?

Technically no. But basically? Yes, the Sun Devils are there.

The College Football Playoff reserves spots for the five highest-rated conference champions. Arizona State was nine spots ahead of Army, the second-ranked conference champion, in the final playoff rankings released last Tuesday. While Army beat Tulane 35-14 on Friday night to win the American Athletic Conference, it won’t be enough to get past the Sun Devils.

Required reading:Kenny Dillingham: Arizona State ‘should be treated like an 11-1 team in final CFP rankings’

Will Arizona State get a bye in the College Football Playoff?

The 12-team College Football Playoff guarantees the four highest-ranked conference champions a first-round bye and an automatic berth in the national quarterfinals. With four major conferences – SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC – the widespread assumption was that those four byes would earn the champion of each of those leagues in most years.

This may not be the case in the first year of the new format.

In the playoff selection committee’s most recent rankings, Boise State was ranked No. 10, while Arizona State was five spots behind at No. 15. The Broncos, who won the Mountain West championship game against UNLV on Friday night, were the fourth-best-rated conference champions, with the Sun Devils fifth. Barring a shakeup, Boise State is in position to earn the fourth and final bye, while Arizona State would have to play a first-round game, likely on the road.

The question now is whether it will stay that way.

The Sun Devils’ margin of victory against Iowa State, another top-20 team, was impressive. It also capped a six-game stretch in which Arizona State was one of the most formidable teams in the game. During that time, it was 6-0 and beat three teams ranked in the top 20 at the time of the match.

Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark was quick to acknowledge this during the postgame trophy presentation.

“There hasn’t been a better team in college football than ASU over the last six weeks,” he said. “In my opinion, you’ve punched your ticket to Tempe.” (One of the playoff quarterfinal games is the Fiesta Bowl in nearby Glendale, Arizona, where the Sun Devils would likely end up if they get a bye.)

The question is whether they did enough to overtake Boise State and get the coveted fourth bye in the first round.

The Broncos impressed in their Mountain West championship win, beating a top-20 UNLV team by 14 points to earn their second win of the season against the Rebels. Ashton Jeanty bolstered his already solid Heisman Trophy winning record with 209 rushing yards and a touchdown.

As eye-opening as Arizona State’s win over Iowa State was, will it be enough to move the Sun Devils up six spots and past a team that also won in conference championship week? Heading into this week, Arizona State was ranked No. 16 in all-time strength on ESPN’s Football Power Index, five spots behind Boise State. The Sun Devils had number 72 on the schedule, 10 spots ahead of the Broncos.

There’s another scenario that could benefit Dillingham’s team. If Clemson beats SMU in the ACC Championship Game, the Tigers would be one of the top five conference champions (at the expense of the Mustangs, the projected No. 3 seed, no less). But at No. 17 in the playoff committees’ latest rankings, it’s almost certain that the Tigers will finish behind Arizona State, which would make the Sun Devils the No. 4 conference champion in a worst-case scenario.

Even if SMU wins, it’s possible the Sun Devils don’t get a first-round bye but at least avoid finishing at No. 12, which they would have done based on the committee’s most recent rankings. The Cyclones’ thumping might have been enough to push Arizona State past the last overall team in the field, currently Alabama.

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Will Arizona State get a bye into the College Football Playoff after winning the Big 12?

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