With Christmas just days away, many Americans may be dreaming of a white Christmas, but few will end up walking in a winter wonderland. The warm and above-average temperatures predicted for Christmas week 2024 across the continental U.S. are expected to keep boredom at bay precipitation This falls as rain rather than snow in many parts of the country.

Where is it most likely to snow at Christmas?

If you’re looking for fluffy white flakes, some spots have a better chance than others.

This year, the only parts of the U.S. likely to have a white Christmas will be the Rocky Mountains and along the U.S. border with Canada. This includes some northern areas of North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, New York State, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.

Weather forecast for holiday travel

For those who try travel On Monday, the more difficult regions will be in the upper Midwest and northern Rocky Mountains. Falling snowflakes are occurring in states such as Idaho, western Montana, northern Minnesota, Wisconsin and northern Michigan. Interstate travel over portions of I-15, I-90, I-84, I-94 and I-75 is dangerous.

Wintry weather conditions will shift from the Great Lakes region to the Northeast on Tuesday. Cold air is moving through, bringing more than half a foot of snow to the interior Northeast.

Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will bring showers to the Mississippi Valley. To the west, the next atmospheric river will bring rain to lower elevations, while snow will fall in the Cascade Mountains. Dangerous conditions for long-distance traffic exist on I-5, I-90, I-94, I-80, I-81 and even portions of I-95 on the East Coast.

Snow forecast map for Christmas Day 2024

On Wednesday, Christmas Day, not many places will see the fresh snow that is typical of the holiday season.

The National Weather Service defines a “white Christmas” as having at least an inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning. The only areas expected to meet this qualification on Christmas Day this year will be in the Rocky Mountains and along the U.S.-Canada border.

Moisture from the atmospheric river to the west will move into the Rocky Mountains, bringing light snow to higher elevations.

Rain continues to fall elsewhere in the Mississippi Valley, making for a wet Christmas Day. Temperatures are expected to be well above freezing in most locations, meaning it will be mostly rain. Christmas may cause chaotic travel on Interstate 40, I-55, I-40, I-70, I-80 and I-90.

On Thursday the next round of weather moves to the northwest. Rain is expected at lower elevations along I-5, while heavier snow is forecast in the interior northwest in the Cascades and Sierra Nevada Mountains. Persistent rain showers continue across the Mississippi Valley and parts of the Midwest.

Are white Christmases becoming increasingly rare?

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has been tracking snowfall data across the U.S. for years and says there have been some notable changes over the past four decades, “consistent with reality.” long-term warming.”

When comparing the average probability of Christmas snowfall From 1981 to 2010 to the period 1991 to 2020, NOAA says, “More areas have seen a decrease in the likelihood of a white Christmas than an increase.”

The NOAA map below shows areas with the highest historical probability of seeing a white Christmas. Areas shaded in light blue have a higher than average probability, whereas the northern and mountainous areas marked in white have historically had a higher probability had snow at Christmas at least 90% of the time.

You can explore an interactive version of the map on the NOAA website here.