The four finalists for college football’s most prestigious award, the Heisman Trophy, were announced on December 9th. These include Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel, Colorado WR/CB Travis Hunter, Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty and Miami QB Cam Ward. The winner will be announced at the Heisman Trophy ceremony tonight at 8:00 p.m. ET. This year’s award is particularly interesting in that neither of the two finalists widely considered front-runners, Hunter and Jeanty, are quarterbacks. The published Heisman Trophy odds from multiple sources provide a glimpse of the likely outcome.

The Heisman Trophy

The Heisman Trophy, first awarded in 1935, is one of the most prestigious awards in American sports and recognizes the most outstanding player in college football. Named after John W. Heisman, a pioneering coach and innovator, the trophy symbolizes individual excellence and serves as a benchmark for success. Often viewed as a gateway to future NFL success, the Heisman Trophy remains a benchmark for individual achievement in college football.

The Heisman Trophy winner is determined through a structured voting process overseen by Deloitte, the accounting firm that tabulates the votes. Electronic ballots will be mailed to 870 media members and 58 past winners representing six regions in the U.S.: Northeast, Southwest, South, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest and Far West. Voters select three players per ballot, with first place votes receiving 3 points, second place votes receiving 2 points, and third place votes receiving 1 point. Any eligible NCAA college football player is eligible. Additionally, the total will be increased by a fan vote conducted at the Nissan Heisman House, bringing the potential number of ballots to 929. The Heisman Trust itself has no influence on the selection and acts solely as administrator of the award.

The Heisman Trophy finalists

Dillon Gabriel, QB, Oregon

Dillon Gabriel earned Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year, Big Ten Quarterback of the Year and first-team All-Big Ten honors in his first season with the Ducks. Gabriel led the Ducks to a perfect 13-0 record, securing the Big Ten Championship against Penn State and the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff. Of note, Gabriel became the NCAA’s all-time leader in touchdowns with 187 and set the FBS record for career quarterback starts with 62, surpassing former Oregon star Bo Nix.

Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Colorado

Travis Hunter delivered an exceptional two-way performance in 2024, earning Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year honors and first-team All-Big 12 recognition as both defensive back and wide receiver. Hunter’s versatility and durability were demonstrated by playing 672 snaps on offense and 688 snaps on defense. For his exceptional season, he received both the Chuck Bednarik Award as the best defensive player and the Fred Biletnikoff Award as the best receiver, becoming the first player to receive both awards. Additionally, Hunter was named the Associated Press College Football Player of the Year, receiving 26 of 43 votes from AP Top 25 voters.

Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State

Ashton Jeanty earned Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year honors and All-Mountain West First Team honors for the second consecutive year. His rushing total is the second highest in FBS regular season history, trailing only Barry Sanders’ 1988 season. He was named MVP of the Mountain West Championship after leading Boise State to a 21-7 victory. His outstanding performance this year earned him both the Maxwell Award, given to the college football player of the year, and the Doak Walker Award, given to the best running back in the country.

Cam Ward, QB, Miami

Cam Ward received ACC Player of the Year and Offensive Player of the Year honors, as well as first-team All-ACC honors. Ward tied Case Keenum’s NCAA Division I record of 155 passing touchdowns and propelled Miami’s offense to the top of the nation in scoring. His exceptional performance earned him the Davey O’Brien Award as the best quarterback in the country.

Odds of winning the Heisman Trophy

Currently, three sources indicate that Travis Hunter will be the likely next Heisman Trophy winner. While not guaranteed, the odds are remarkably in his favor.

Vegas betting odds

Vegas betting odds reflect the implied probability of an event occurring and determine the payout for a winning bet. Moneylines are a type of betting odds that indicate how much money you could win (or have to bet) on a given outcome. A positive money line (e.g. +200) indicates how much profit you would make with a $100 bet, while a negative money line (e.g. -150) indicates how much you need to bet to make $100 to win. For example, a moneyline of +200 means that a bet of $100 would return a profit of $200, whereas a moneyline of -150 means that you need to bet $150 to win $100. The current money lines for each Heisman Trophy finalist from BetMGM are:

• Travis Hunter -2500
• Ashton Jeanty +1000
• Cam Ward +25000
• Dillon Gabriel +25000

Converting those money lines into probabilities, Vegas currently gives Travis Hunter a 96 percent chance of winning the Heisman Trophy. Although that probability seems insurmountable, Ashton Jeanty’s chances of winning the prize have more than doubled since last week.

Heisman straw poll

Dennis Dodd of CBS Sports recently released the results of his annual Heisman straw poll. In his poll of 29 anonymous Heisman voters, Travis Hunter received 20 first-place votes, Jeanty received 8, and Gabriel received 1. Although this is only a small fraction of all Heisman voters, it offers a first glimpse of possible outcomes, as Travis Hunter received 45 % of votes received All points from voting.

Polymarket

Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform that allows users to trade the outcomes of real-world events using cryptocurrencies. Unlike traditional betting markets, Polymarket uses blockchain technology, providing a unique opportunity to gain predictive insights. Markets range from politics to sports to global trends. Based on current trading, each finalist’s probability of winning the Heisman Trophy is:

• Travis Hunter 96%
• Ashton Jeanty 3%
• Dillon Gabriel <1%
• Cam Ward <1%

These numbers match those of Vegas and provide another source to confirm the likely outcome of today’s ceremony.

The meaning

We won’t know this year’s winner until after the ceremony, but Heisman Trophy odds data suggests Travis Hunter is the clear front-runner. Should he take home the award, it would be a seismic moment in college football, as he would be the first defensive player to win since Charles Woodson in 1997, and only the second ever. His victory would celebrate an unprecedented level of endurance and dominance, defying the modern trend of hyper-specialization in football. At a time when players rarely excel on both sides of the ball, Hunter’s tireless influence makes him a once-in-a-generation talent deserving of this historic honor.