GREEN BAY – If the Packers want to leave US Bank Stadium victorious on Sunday, they’ll likely have to do something that’s been incredibly difficult for them.

Defeat the Vikings in a close game.

Sure it would be great if the Packers could win on the road like they did in Minneapolis last year, but this was a very different – and exhausted – Vikings team.

This game has a good chance of clinching the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs and a first-round bye, and that’s largely due to its ability to win the close games.

With a record of 13-2, Minnesota is 8-1 in one-possession games (a margin of eight points or less), the second-best record in the league this year behind only Kansas City (11-0). That loss was a two-point loss to NFC North rival Detroit by a score of 31-29, the same score by which the Vikings defeated the Packers in their first meeting this season in Week 4.

Winning close games has become a hallmark of coach Kevin O’Connell’s tenure in Minnesota, as he led the Vikings to an 11-0 mark in one-possession contests and an NFC North championship in his first season in 2022. Crown led.

All told, O’Connell is now 25-9 in one-possession games through three seasons, which is the second-best winning percentage in league history (.735) for coaches with at least 25 one-possession decisions, according to NFL Research. The only better is Hall of Fame coach Guy Chamberlin (22-7-7, .759), and O’Connell is just ahead of another Hall of Famer, John Madden (40-14-7, .732).

Matt LaFleur also had a series of successful one-possession games early in his tenure as Green Bay’s head coach. From the start of 2019 to about midway through the 2021 season, LaFleur posted a remarkable 16-3 record in one-possession games. Since then, the law of averages has caught up with the Packers in some respects, with LaFleur now 34-21 in one-possession games overall, including the playoffs.

Teams that win close games are both resilient and competitive, to boil it down to a few characteristics. Resilient when it comes to recovering from something that goes wrong so that a game is not lost and the chance of victory remains within reach. Choose to perform well in crucial moments, either by providing the drive you need to score game-winning points or stopping the defense to maintain a slim lead.

The Packers have also been pretty good in close games this season, starting 5-2 before losing on a walk-off field goal in Detroit three weeks ago.

In that game, the Packers had to settle for a game-tying field goal rather than a touchdown late in the fourth quarter, and then couldn’t stop the Lions until they burned through the final three and a half minutes of game time for one final time. Play kick.

There’s a good chance this game hinges on a similar scenario, and execution at the crucial time will determine that.

It’s also worth noting the historical significance of this matchup and the final two weeks of the 2024 regular season in the NFC North.

With the Vikings at 13-2 and the Packers at 11-4, this is the first time in the 127 regular-season meetings between these longtime rivals that both teams have won more than 11 times.

According to NFL Research, it is only the fourth league-wide game in the last 25 seasons in which two division rivals with more than 11 wins each compete against each other.

There hasn’t been a game like this in five years, the 2019 regular-season finale between the 49ers and the Seahawks, and the last one in the NFC North was a decade ago, the 2014 finale at Lambeau Field between the Lions and the Packers.

And then next week comes the fifth such divisional game in the last 25 years when the Vikings visit the Lions (13-2).

How good is the NFC North this year?

“I think we’ll figure it out come playoff time,” LaFleur said. “When we all compete against each other, you are forced to give your best every week. I mean, you can’t afford to slip up just to keep up with everyone. I would say that it forces you to perform at your best every week.

This showdown between the Packers and Vikings will see Green Bay trying to keep its hopes of securing the top wild card seed (No. 5) alive while Minnesota looks to stay in the running for the No. 1 seed.

That’s why QB Jordan Love said there was “all the motivation in the world” to win this game, especially since the NFC’s top three teams – Lions, Eagles and Vikings – were responsible for all four of the Packers’ losses this season.

“Bad” was how Love described how badly the Packers want to beat one of the top teams. “Of course we only have one chance here this week.

“As I mentioned before, we need to be able to win these games against the really good teams in the league and prepare for the situation we find ourselves in in the playoffs – playing well on the road.”