It’s been a wild season in Conference USA, but Friday’s title game brings us the two best teams in the conference all season. It was a great year for Jacksonville State, even if they stumbled a bit down the stretch. The same cannot be said for Western Kentucky, as the Hilltoppers lost consecutive games to Louisiana Tech and Liberty before needing a 50-yard field goal on the final play of the game to beat the same Jacksonville State team a week ago . However, the Gamecocks were without one Starting quarterback Tyler Huff, who was injured early in the second quarter of that contest. Although his status for this game is unconfirmed, the line suggests he will play and I believe he was left out of the remainder of last week’s competition out of an abundance of caution. Even if Huff isn’t fully healthy, the Gamecocks can rely on Tre Stewart and their ground attack to thrive against a Western Kentucky defense that is ranked outside the top 100 and has a high success rate over the last month.

Backup quarterback Logan Smothers isn’t anything special, but he has plenty of experience in Rich Rodriguez’s offensive system and should be able to lead this offense just fine on Friday against a very weak Western Kentucky defense. This is a defensive unit is 117th in rushing percentage allowed and outside the EPA’s top 100 per rush on the season, and that doesn’t bode well against a Gamecocks offense that has one of the highest rushing rates in the country. The Hilltoppers rank 127th defensively in third- and fourth-downs allowed (College Football Insiders), and Jacksonville State’s offense ranks in the top 20 in Early Downs EPA – putting the Gamecocks in several manageable third-downs. should bring down situations. Even after shutting down multiple starters on both sides of the ball a week ago, Jacksonville State finished the game with a postgame win expectation of 63%. This game has the makings of a penalty shootout and I will be on the home team’s side to make it happen.

Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State Prediction: Jacksonville State -4.5 (-110) available at time of publication. Playable until 5.

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