XAG/USD rebounds near .50 on increased risk aversion

XAG/USD rebounds near $29.50 on increased risk aversion

  • Silver prices are rising as traders exercise caution regarding the new Trump administration.
  • Non-yielding silver may face challenges due to the hawkish Fed interest rate outlook in 2025.
  • Safe haven Silver received support as Israeli forces carried out attacks on two hospitals in northern Gaza on Sunday.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) recouped recent losses from the previous session to trade at around $29.50 per troy ounce during Asian trading hours on Monday. However, trading volumes ahead of the New Year holidays are lower than usual.

Safe-haven silver is appreciating as traders await signals on the U.S. economy under President-elect Trump’s administration and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate outlook for 2025.

The potential of Donald Trump’s tariffs and trade policies could spark trade tensions, increase risk aversion and support demand for safe-haven assets like silver. However, the prospect of fewer Fed rate cuts in 2025 could limit the upside potential for the price of non-yielding silver. The Fed cut its key interest rate by a quarter point at the December meeting, and the latest dot plots suggested two rate cuts next year.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US dollar (USD) against its six major competitors, is at around 108.00, slightly below its highest level since November 2022. Further strengthening for the greenback could limit the upside in dollar-denominated precious commodities like silver, as a stronger USD makes these assets more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Additionally, safe-haven demand for silver could be buoyed by increased geopolitical risks due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and ongoing tensions in the Middle East. On Sunday, Israeli forces carried out attacks on two hospitals in northern Gaza, including an attack on the upper floor of Al-Wafaa Hospital in Gaza City that killed at least seven people and seriously injured others.

Frequently asked questions about silver

Silver is a heavily traded precious metal among investors. In the past, it was used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Although it is less popular than gold, traders may turn to silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value, or as a potential hedge during times of high inflation. Investors can purchase physical silver in coins or bars, or trade it through vehicles such as exchange-traded funds that track its price on international markets.

The price of silver can fluctuate based on a variety of factors. Geopolitical instability or fear of a deep recession can cause silver prices to escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than gold. As a non-yielding asset, silver tends to appreciate when interest rates are lower. Its movements also depend on how the US dollar (USD) behaves when the asset is valued in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong dollar tends to keep silver prices in check, while a weaker dollar is likely to push prices higher. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – silver is much more common than gold – and recycling rates can also impact prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in areas such as electronics or solar energy, because it has one of the highest electrical conductivities of any metal – more than copper and gold. An increase in demand can increase prices, while a decrease tends to lower them. Dynamics in the economies of the US, China and India can also contribute to price fluctuations: in the US and especially China, their large industrial sectors use silver in various processes; In India, consumer demand for the precious metal for jewelry also plays a crucial role in pricing.

The price of silver tends to follow the movements of gold. When gold prices rise, silver tends to follow suit as their safe-haven status is similar. The gold/silver ratio, which indicates the number of ounces of silver required to equal the value of one ounce of gold, can help determine the relative valuation of both metals. Some investors may view a high ratio as an indicator that silver is undervalued or gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio could indicate that gold is undervalued compared to silver.

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