For a variety of reasons, basketball is the most difficult of the four major North American sports to achieve an away win. Alternating performances between home and away games are often the norm. (FWIW, the most recent data from last January put the odds of an away win at 31%). That’s why teams like Indiana and UCLA can get hyped up by the perfectly average Cornhuskers in Lincoln, and then that same Nebraska team can lose by 37 to Michigan State (which actually happened this year). Teams often find themselves upside down at home and can pull off seemingly improbable upsets.

But shortly after a defenestration of No. 12 Oklahoma that was so thorough it would make Russian oil tycoons nervous, the No. 5 Crimson Tide heads to South Carolina to face one of (maybe). The) the most confusing team on its SEC schedule. Because these “Cocks” can play well enough to beat Clemson 12-3, but at the same time are bad enough to lose four games with the 271st SOS, including against North Florida (7-8, No. 217). And make both at home.

Let’s take a look at USCe and what the Tide can expect on Wednesday when SEC road play opens.

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History of the tape: No. 74 South Carolina (10-4) vs. No. 5 Alabama (12-2)

Spread: Alabama -10.5 (O/U 157.5)

Opponent KenPom: 74 (103 Attack, 65 Defense, 259 Speed)
Opponent Evan Miya: 78 (101 Attack, 69 Defense, 266 Speed)
Opponent Bart Torvik: 93 (137 Attack, 79 Defense, 190 Speed)
Opponent NET: 93 (Q2)
Opponent RPI: 54
Opponent’s Best KenPom Win: Clemson (32)
Opponent’s Worst KenPom Loss: North Florida (217)

UA Ken Pom: 9. (5 Off, 44. Defense, 5. Pace)
UA Evan Miya: 7. (3 off, 25. defense, 1. pace)
UA Bart Torvik: 7 (4 Off, 34th Defense, 4th Pace)
UA NET ranking: 9 (7-2 Q1/2)
UA RPI:3
UA Best KenPom Win: No. 4 (N) Houston
UA Worst KenPom Loss: No. 26 at Purdue

You want to point something out to the Gamecocks and say, “This! That’s what they’re good at.” The problem, however, is that other than getting to the free throw line, South Carolina has absolutely nothing – offensive or defensive – that gets them out of average to sometimes poor territory. However, if you were hesitant to assign any label to USC, it would be “a team defined by its post play, with a lot of asterisks.”

If “almost” was a team, it would be South Carolina. They are almost good at things without being really good in any area.

• As we saw last week at Oklahoma, the Gamecocks utilize a five-out system, with Lamont Paris emphasizing “paced action.” The problem is that USC’s guards are good enough to be a shooting threat some Pressure on the opposing backfield – but there is no real perimeter player who absolutely has to guard: three guys shoot exactly on average, only the sixth man Morris Ugusk is significantly above that.
• It’s a team that minimizes turnovers and focuses on defense – while at the same time not being very good at forcing turnovers and being only average in both ground and perimeter defense.
• It’s a team that does its best work when operating the two strikers from one position painful slow offense – although not a good offensive rebounder.
• It’s a team that excels at getting to the free throw line (perhaps its greatest strength) – while also being a terrible free throw team And sending opposing shooters to the line far too often.

There is no balance, certainly no pace, and all too often USC finds itself in a two-man screen-and-roll game, praying for an easy basket in the post or a trip to the line. However, it is also a risky strategy that leaves little room for error. And if it just doesn’t work, if opponents clean up on the glass or don’t send USC to the stripe, there won’t be enough firepower to get USCe back into the game.

That’s them almost Good at a lot of things, and on any given night USC can be a competent basketball team. But it’s a team of generalists trying to win with ugly basketball and marginal talent, which means they have to win by drawing fouls, letting opponents play at their pace, and trying to keep the score in the low 70s. In fact, that’s the magic number: USC hasn’t lost a game in which they scored 71 points.

All of this has led to a first for the Tide this year. South Carolina is that only Alabama’s previous opponent is underperforming its schedule. Depending on the analytics service you choose, the Gamecocks are 1 to 2.3 games below their expected winning total. And that is also reflected in the results. They are 1-3 against T1 and T2 opponents compared to their very weak schedule and even suffered a loss against a T4. For the Tide, this will be a Q2 NET opponent just because it’s on the road, but based on the first third of the season, USC will flirt with the 90s in NET all year long. And that assumes they hold serve against some of the weaker opponents in the conference (Missouri, LSU, maybe Vanderbilt, etc.).

You want to at least compliment Nick Pringle’s new team. And Lamont Paris is a really likeable guy. But this club is very reminiscent of Ben Howland’s teams at Mississippi State: pure defense with little counterattack… albeit with less individual talent (as a whole).

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Key personnel

USC’s offense will be powered by the forwards of a team that will be one of the smallest the Tide will face all season.

Hometown sophomore Collin Murray-Boyles is having a great season, leading USC in floor shooting by one broad Margin (61.7%), points (15.8), rebounds (9.4), blocks (1.4) and is second only to PG Jamarii Thomas in assists (2.5). The biggest downside to CMB is that it’s really tricky and will screw up a lot. Per touch, he leads the Gamecocks in TO rate and is purely averaging 3 per night. But in the same Gamecock paradox we’ve seen almost everywhere, he is Also He is a good ball defender and has nimble klepto skills.

He will be joined in advance by the always energetic Nick Pringle. The former ‘Bama F’ finally got the minutes and starting job he wanted and he’s making the most of it. Pringle is USC’s third-leading scorer (10.5) and second in rebounds and blocks. He’s also reduced his turnovers compared to the reckless Bama years and is having an all-around solid season. How well? His assist-to-turnover this year is almost 2:1. Good for him. We love Pringle. And while CMB will likely get most of the attention, Pringle is the best interior defender for USC, and you can bet he’ll do everything he can to stop Alabama’s follow-up play.

Among the guards, PG Jamarii Thomas is the man to watch. He leads the Gamecocks in minutes played, assists, steals and is second in scoring. He is the most valuable ball handler and small defender on the team and one of four players in their thin rotation who all shoot around 35-36% from beyond the arc.

Zachary Davis is their “Little Engine That Could” and the best rebounder of the bunch. Despite being a limited offensive player, he is very physical and pounds the glass against a team that is relatively poor at tracking down their misses. Meanwhile, Jacobi Wright is probably USC’s second-best guard in terms of ball handling, perimeter shooting, defense and distribution. Oddly enough, for a combo guard, he’s pretty bad at the free throw line (under 70%). But that’s not unusual for the Gamecocks: Among starters, the “best” is only shooting 77% on a team that’s under 70% overall. Yuck.

The Gamecocks only go eight players deep (seven most nights) and their bench scoring is even more limited than the starting rotation. It’s worst in the SEC and bottom third nationally, where just 28% of points come from boys 6-13.

CMB and Jamarii will undoubtedly be the defensive focus.

Here’s how to watch

Wednesday, January 8, 6:00 a.m. Central SEC Network

forecast

The Tide’s biggest danger in this game is losing focus. USC is not a great shooting team, although it does have some competent shooters. Overall, it’s not a great rebounding team, but it is a high-energy team. It’s not a sloppy team and has limited weapons, but it will look to force its style of play, bleed out the clock and make Alabama impatient.

Consider this a trial balloon for most of the season. This will be the first of many games in which the opponent attempts to engage Alabama in a mud wrestling contest, bleeding the clock and deflating the ball. It’s up to the Tide not to get too big of a head, not to get frustrated and then make the most of their attacking opportunities – even if they have to make 30 free throws to get there. If Alabama uses size and speed and musters some of the defensive energy we saw from Oklahoma in the first half, this could be a rare loss.

Alabama 84
South Carolina 65

Hope for the best.
Roll Tide.

Here is your game thread. The sound is off downstairs